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What do you think will compel today's countries to break apart?
Fiscal insolvency and political polarization
My thinking is that political polarization is pushing people more towards distinct poles (red vs blue), rather than causing people to splinter into a million different belief systems.
Of course there are lots of sub-groups, but it feels like most tribes fit neatly into red or blue narratives these days.
You're right, so far. Polarization is highly bipolar.
Still, that drives urban-rural divides and could lead to cities wanting more autonomy from their surroundings.
This is the key division: rural vs urban
There are no blue states only blue cities
drones
why?
drones are cheaper than security guards and can be deployed much like private security.
I think when towns are able to protect themselves, they will elect to do so.
Will it persist as a form of confederacy, or full city state sovereignty?
As long as belief in system will persist, I don't think something would change if governments wouldn't go full in planned economy. Well, EU still would blow up in 20-30 years I think, too many idiotic decisions they made. And UK if they won't reverse their course into madness.
I think we’ll see Europe crack up before America.
I’m sure some of the smaller units will form confederacies. No reason to think it’ll be the same arrangement everywhere.
I'm also joining team more.
I think the days of vast geographic areas ruled by a centralized authority are coming to a close. Municipal governments will likely persist, though.