All Brownstone readers know that the Covid vaccines should never have been mandatory and should never have been prescribed to children or pregnant women, groups for which they were not tested. All of us have been alarmed to see stories of surprisingly many sudden heart failures, turbo cancers, and failed pregnancies in the days and months following the rollout of these shots.
How bad can it be? What is the worst estimate of the impact of the Covid vaccines on the count of living humans for which there is both some degree of empirical evidence and biological plausibility? Let us look into the heart of darkness and consider the worst.
Domain 1: Worldwide Excess Deaths
The principal source for global mortality data is the United Nations World Population Prospects, which at the time of writing had not been updated with a definitive number for 2024. We therefore only use data through 2023. Below we plot the total number of deaths in the world since 1950, and add to that a projection of the 10-year trend before 2020 through to 2023 (shown in the graph below as a red line). The numbers reveal that yearly death counts change fairly smoothly over time, except when humans do something stupid like the Great Leap Forward of 1958-1962, which corresponds to the previous big spike in world deaths evident on the graph and which has been estimated to have cost the lives of around 45 million people. ...
Domain 2: Lost Babies
How many babies could possibly have been lost as a direct consequence of the Covid vaccines, due to reduced biological fertility, actual loss of unborn life via miscarriages, or a failure of men and women to meet or to engage in sexual activity for vaccine-related reasons (due, for example, to feeling ill with post-vaccination symptoms)?
Again, world data on births is the place to look, with the pre-2020 trend line projected for the Covid era and plotted in red in the graph below. Unlike world deaths, world births change more erratically over time which makes accurate projections after 2019 more difficult, but as with total deaths, we project based on the trend in the 10 years before Covid. ...
Any argument that the true number of lost babies is far higher than 27.9 million must rest on an expectation that world fertility would have jumped up after 2019 in a counterfactual no-Covid world, such that our ten-year trendline projection plus expected post-2020 bounce-back is an inappropriate baseline counterfactual. We know of no such specific argument, although the graph above shows that small downturns (such as in the 1970s) have been followed by upswings, so one cannot rule it out.
Domain 3: Future Fertility Losses and Future Excess Deaths
Recent studies show a loss of eggs among females and permanent epigenetic changes (often spun as a positive instead of a negative) from some of the Covid vaccines, leading to the expectation of ongoing biological damage from the shots. The types of damage logically expected might include barriers to conception and carriage of pregnancies to term, earlier menopause, and ongoing higher rates of cardiovascular problems, immune system dysfunction, and cancers.
I> t is very difficult to estimate confidently how bad the excess death and prevented birth problems might be going forward, but a few lines of argument can be explored.
One estimate of future excess deaths could be based on assuming that the presence of spike protein per se is the fundamental pathological element causing death, through the various different pathways that have been postulated and are consistent with observed illnesses (cardiovascular, immunological, epigenetic, etc.). While for most people the expression of the spike protein drops to near zero a year after vaccination, there is a subgroup among those with ‘Post vaccination Syndrome’ (PVS) who exhibit ongoing spike protein expression. ...
Facing the Worst
We have sketched what to our mind are the worst-case scenarios of the life-taking damage done by the Covid ‘vaccines’ for which, based on presently available data, one can make a reasonable empirical argument. Excess deaths caused by the vaccines (so far and in the future) might be as high as 30 million, there might be an additional 28 million babies prevented from living because of the vaccines, and a large multiple of those losses is possible in the future if the Covid shots have permanently damaged female fertility. To our knowledge, all claims of ‘lives saved’ due to the vaccine are based on mathematical modelling with pro-vaccine assumptions baked in (e.g., here and here). By contrast, our analysis here uses real data coupled with assumptions – which are unavoidable to construct estimates – that we make as transparent and explicit as space constraints allow. We invite others to be explicit about their alternative assumptions and resultant estimates.
We have not counted non-mortal effects of the Covid vaccines in this piece, although for a full reckoning of the health damage wrought by the shots, any effects on quality of life should also be counted. Our expectation is that these effects are significant.
We must face the possibility that the Covid vaccines are the world’s worst man-made disaster in history, by a large margin.
Who did this? Who needs to face accountability over this? Who were the culprits that made this vaccine, invented this vaccine and then pushed it off on humanity? Why did they do it? And, finally, just who the hell do they think they are to do this to everybody who won the Darwin Award? I think there are people out there that will want these answers as soon as possible, those who are now infertile, those who are crippled and those loved ones who are dead from the vaccine! Screw the small stuff, lets go after those people!