I’ll start playing around with different scenarios. It does look like 20% is more plausible than I thought and CAGR has been steadily declining (as should be expected). 

I think the cycles partly depend on our belief in them. If we stop expecting big drawdowns, then we might start seeing them again. 

I think that's a pretty low ball expectation. You could start it at a lower point like 100k, 80k or 58k.

Bitcoin can surprise you to the upside or down. I really think that the 4 year cycles are gone and that we won't see the large drawdowns we used to.



Is it realistic though? Other than starting from very specific tops, has that happened over a multi year period?