Best future price models \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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396 sats \ 15 comments \ @Undisciplined 7 Aug bitcoin

I think @elvismercury may have asked a similar question recently, but I'd be interested to know what stackers' preferred appreciation models are.

I'm working on some family financial planning and could use some good future estimates of purchasing power.

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49 sats \ 3 replies \ @SimpleStacker 7 Aug

You mean for bitcoin?

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 7 Aug

I do

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @SimpleStacker 7 Aug

I remember this article by Josh Hendrickson that used various valuation models and came up with a huge range of estimates. It's probably best to pick a few different estimates and plan out your finances under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 7 Aug

That’s exactly what I was hoping for.

For my purposes, I only need realistic lower bounds.

42 sats \ 3 replies \ @OT 7 Aug

A 20% CAGR might be conservative enough to make plans for the future.

42 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 7 Aug

Is it realistic though? Other than starting from very specific tops, has that happened over a multi year period?

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @OT 7 Aug

I think that's a pretty low ball expectation. You could start it at a lower point like 100k, 80k or 58k.

Bitcoin can surprise you to the upside or down. I really think that the 4 year cycles are gone and that we won't see the large drawdowns we used to.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 7 Aug

I’ll start playing around with different scenarios. It does look like 20% is more plausible than I thought and CAGR has been steadily declining (as should be expected).

I think the cycles partly depend on our belief in them. If we stop expecting big drawdowns, then we might start seeing them again.

96 sats \ 1 reply \ @02321d1dfd 7 Aug

The truth is: there is no working price model.

108 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 7 Aug

All models are wrong but some are useful

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @2053456d48 7 Aug

Quant finance will definitely help you in planing for your financial needs. It's just a suggestion and not investment advice. DYOR !

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 7 Aug

This is how I crowdsource my own research.

63 sats \ 1 reply \ @DarthCoin 7 Aug

Price in fiat is an illusion.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 7 Aug

That’s why I specify purchasing power

75 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 7 Aug

The notion of expecting to be able to predict Bitcoins future value should be considered absurd.

The number of variables involved makes any credible assessment impossible. Nobody who claims to be able to make such predictions should be taken seriously.

Only buy and use Bitcoin if you want to be part of the peaceful revolution seeking to build an alternative to the parasitic, rentseeking fiat debt slavery bankers cartel.