Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Glassnode analyzes the recent sharp movements of the digital currency after it reached all-time highs last week.

It is crucial that strong institutional inflows continue, or BTC will face further declines. On-chain signals currently show weakness for Bitcoin. Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high (ATH) of $124,500 and then suffered a correction that pushed its price below the $115,000 level.

After these sharp moves, Bitcoin’s price managed to stabilize in the range between $115,500 and $116,000.

The following chart, provided by TradingView, shows how BTC has performed throughout the current year:

Bitcoin price chart. Bitcoin performance so far in 2025. Source: TradingView.

In this context, according to Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, there are signals showing weakness in the price of the currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto in the short term.

On the one hand, there has been a sharp drop in the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) in the spot market. This is a technical analysis tool that measures the difference between BTC’s buy and sell volume over time.

If the indicator is high, it means there is stronger buying pressure. Conversely, if it drops, it indicates stronger selling pressure.

In the following chart, we can see that the CVD (blue line) has fallen to -87.8 million, which shows that aggressive sell orders have far outpaced buy orders in the spot market.

Chart representing Bitcoin spot CVD. Bitcoin spot CVD. Source: Glassnode.

The fact that the CVD is approaching the red dotted line indicates a market under sellers’ control, reinforcing a bearish bias and showing signs of cooling demand.

Glassnode analysts point out that, although the indicator has returned to its statistical range (between $5.3 million and -$225 million), the negative slope is clear and reflects a bearish sentiment, as buyers show weakening demand while aggressive sellers maintain control of the market.

In the futures market, open interest (OI) remains at high levels, which means there is a lot of leverage. Although it does not define price direction, this context often precedes episodes of volatility and, in the short term, is a signal for caution, since historically OI peaks have led to deleveraging events. This tends to create instability going forward, as a sharp price move is enough to trigger a chain of liquidations.

Before moving on, it is worth explaining that OI shows how many futures contracts remain active and is used to measure sentiment, activity, and liquidity, as explained by CriptoNoticias. It increases when more new contracts are opened than closed, reflecting greater market participation and trading volume.

The following chart shows OI, which illustrates the evolution of open futures contracts in the market.

Chart reflecting Bitcoin open interest. Bitcoin open interest. Source: Glassnode.

The gray line represents the asset’s price, the blue line shows the total OI value, while the green and red dotted lines mark the statistical reference ranges: green indicates historically high levels of open positions, and red indicates low levels.

Currently, OI has risen to $47.2 billion, surpassing the upper green band of $46.2 billion. This indicates a very active market but also one more exposed to episodes of volatility and potential liquidations if a sharp price adjustment occurs.

The report also highlights that user activity and active addresses on the Bitcoin network declined over the past week. In this regard, analysts state: “The count of daily active addresses fell from 798,000 to 717,000, a 10.1% decrease that places the metric close to its lower statistical band of 711,000. This drop suggests more moderate activity on the network, with fewer users conducting on-chain transactions. The proximity to the lower band underscores a decline in speculative activity and weakening short-term enthusiasm. While this cooling may reflect temporary market fatigue, it also indicates a contraction in user participation.”

Additionally, it should be noted that transaction fee volume on the network dropped from $512,100 to $418,900 in 7 days, an 18.2% decrease that places the metric close to its lower statistical band of $433,600. “This position suggests lower transaction pressure and less intense usage, pointing to calmer market conditions. The contraction in fee volume reflects a decline in demand for block space, which could indicate cooling on-chain activity and weaker organic demand for the network’s resources,” the report explains.

Gráfico que refleja la evolución de las tarifas en la red Bitcoin. Volumen total de comisiones en la red de Bitcoin. Fuente: Glassnode Para los analistas de Glassnode, será fundamental que se mantengan elevadas las entradas de capital en los fondos cotizados en bolsa (ETF) de BTC en este contexto de alta volatilidad de precios. Al respecto, señalan: “Los flujos de ETF experimentaron una fuerte recuperación, con más de 880 millones de dólares en entradas semanales, acompañadas de un mayor volumen de negociación”.

Chart representing weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows. Source: Glassnode.

Finally, analysts outline two scenarios for BTC’s price: “With profit-taking on the rise, the sustainability of institutional inflows and the renewed conviction of buyers, both in the spot and futures markets, will determine whether this contraction stabilizes into a new bullish impulse or extends into a deeper consolidation.”

In simpler terms, although activity shows bearish signals, the behavior of institutional investors and the reaction of buyers in the coming days will be key to defining whether BTC strongly resumes its upward momentum or enters a more prolonged correction phase.

Somebody intersted in Bitcoin/bitcoin