I have always struggled with the idea of a commercial VPN. Assuming a case where both are run by private companies, why would one be more deserving of your trust than another?
VPN is in a privacy-respecting jurisdiction, but my ISPs often aren't - i.e. using one of those popular "anonymous" 3at or proximus esims, you're basically getting packet logged in resp. Austria or Belgium.
ISPs are often mandated by law to keep logs, VPN I use is explicitly excluded from that in their jurisdiction
My VPN doesn't have any KYC (neither does any of my esim providers though)
MOST IMPORTANT: I don't use a single VPN account. I switch prepaid VPN accounts when I switch eSIMs (and these I switch with every border crossing)
I did some quick googling about packet logging, but couldn't get a sense of what the implications are. (Speaking as one who often uses esims while traveling)
Packets are the atomic data containers that you use to communicate over the internet.
Packet logging is simply the act of capturing that data at the transport level. Often packets are logged, processed and discarded 1. Much of this originates from the EU - of which both Belgium and Austria happen to be member states. To the best of my knowledge, the main body of text covering this is Directive 2006/24/EC.
But if it's https aren't they encrypted? I'm sure there us meta analysis one can do on them, but I have been under the impression that encryption prevents some of it.
Now, there is also maybe the risk that they are storing the packets until encryption is broken...but I'm not too worried about that.
The traffic is, but on all popular OSs (win/android/ios/macos), you have to manually configure encrypted DNS for your DNS lookups to not be in cleartext and the IP address that you're communicating with is too (and it's trivial to reverse-lookup) so your ISP can easily find out where you're going.
there is also maybe the risk that they are storing the packets until encryption is broken
There were some allegations that specific traffic, like all tor traffic, gets logged for later correlation, but I can't remember if I've seen direct evidence of that. Wouldn't surprise me though if that were the case.
But for the majority of traffic this wouldn't be feasible. I.e. an X post with 3 million views would be stored 3 million times, including all the megabytes of bloat surrounding the actual few 100 characters... Now imagine a 7GB youtube HD video. A Netflix series everyone binge watches... and so on.
An argument toward VPN is that their whole business is related to how much people trust them, while ISP do not need this because their business rests on basic internet availability.
However, this line of reasoning is based on rational behaviour and good faith, which means it will likely not be a good model of reality.
The only thing I trust about my ISP is their incompetence and lack of interest in what I access. Even so, I tend to trust the VPN company more because of their entire business model, especially if the payment is via LN.
because their upstream connections are optimized for high throughput and low latency. to be a good VPN one must run servers in all corners of the world. the best ones offer split tunneling and lan isolation, so their apps must run locally on your devices.
Of course it can, and sometimes it definitely does (that's a gut feeling induced by simple inference from standard behaviour on tech space).
However, VPNs are also used for work reasons, so I believe ISPs can not discriminate between the case of someone wanting to hide and someone who use VPNs for work, and thus don't pay much attention to whoever use it. Actually, I don't even know how the ISP can know you are using a VPN, so I realize I am writing almost meaningless words.
You don't need to run faster than a grizzly bear to survive. You just need to run faster than the next guy. My security model assumes that if my VPN provider leaks, it won't be my data. So I will have time to jump ship.
None of them is absolutely trustworthy. Not even my bank, obviously.
But in general, I have more choices in choosing a vpn (after due research) than in choosing my isp, which would be more heavily regulated by the government than rules my land.
Hence, I would be more comfortable with my vpn than with my isp
Under many conditions, a VPN provider. However, if you run your own VPN server locally and you have the right configuration, then you can be 100% sure that your data are not at risk!
Footnotes