reply on: Hedging your bets, learn from @Undisciplined \ stacker news ~oracle

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0 sats \ 17 replies \ @Undisciplined 16h \ on: Hedging your bets, learn from @Undisciplined oracle

Unless we end up between 1.4M and 1.5M

42 sats \ 14 replies \ @south_korea_ln OP 16h

True. Those are the edge cases that can fuck it all up.

At this point, I would expect a yes voter from the 1.4M to either know something we don't (e.g. @ek, who knows about an HR play for the coming months to increase SN adoption) or to actively skew the market in their favor (e.g. @Coinsreporter starting to post 1000s of posts per day).

25 sats \ 12 replies \ @Undisciplined 16h

Even with those cases, I'm reasonably confident they won't land right in between the two marks.

42 sats \ 9 replies \ @ek 15h

82 sats \ 8 replies \ @SimpleStacker 12h

Haha still funny to me that people are betting on something that at least one of the other bettors has literal direct control over

105 sats \ 7 replies \ @south_korea_ln OP 12h

I see it differently.

I see it as a way to reward/incentivize this other bettor to make the unlikely happen, thanks to his more direct control.

If I lose this bet, I'll feel good about it, because then it means SN is doing better than expected.

21 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined 7h

That's right, it's a win-win

142 sats \ 5 replies \ @south_korea_ln OP 7h

Seems like a bot has started doing just that...

2000 posts in last 30 minutes...

42 sats \ 4 replies \ @ek 7h

Yeah I watched what they were posting a bit, see #1095189

It's just random garbage, so yeah probably really someone who figured out how to use the API to move markets but didn't figure out you don't actually have to create items that will show up for others

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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @Coinsreporter 15h

And somehow if we land in between, you lose both of your bets. Your strategy is same like your nym just @Undisciplined, doesn't know where it's heading to...haha

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 7h

I have already made my sats back by trading all the movement, so I'm not too worried about it.

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 15h

Hello no, I can't post 1000 posts per day to win this, it won't be worth it I'm not winning at least a million. Right now we're exactly falling behind by 1000 items/day but I'm putting my faith into time which I believe is still not over.

62 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 15h

This is likely to happen if we hit 1.4M. We aren’t hitting 1.5.

82 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 14h

We may fall behind by 100k items if the current trend continues. I'm seeing a continuous collapse in activity on SN for the last few days if not months. Maybe the reward being cut in half is the reason. But we can't do anything about it. It wasn't a good move to repair when something wasn't broken.