This episode argues that Western policy circles misread China by projecting short-term, nation-state logic onto a millennia-old civilization that prizes stability, resources, and incremental, asymmetric advantage; China isn’t seeking global hegemony so much as regional primacy in Asia while hedging the dollar system via gold settlement, selective decoupling, and supply-chain leverage (rare earths, polysilicon, manufacturing). The U.S., meanwhile, is “fiscally boxed in,” overextended militarily, and deeply reliant on Chinese inputs, yet clings to ideology over pragmatism. Alexander likens the moment less to a Soviet-style Cold War and more to pre-WWI Britain, Germany missteps, where tariffs, posturing, and misreading the other side’s incentives raised the odds of conflict. He contends U.S. leverage still exists (consumer market, forward deployment, finance) but must be exercised through joint ventures, deregulation that enables on-shore production with Chinese capital/know-how, and, critically, an explicit diplomatic recognition of China as an equal to unlock cooperation.

Interesting. I don't really know enough to comment, but the claim that US clings to ideology more than pragmatism seems true to me. I wonder how much of Americans' ideological fervor is driven by the left/right domestic politics, which then translates into who gets elected. Most Chinese people I've met are eminently pragmatic and materialistic (that's not necessarily a good thing, but it does mean they don't make as many dumb mistakes due to ideology)