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More realistically it would immediately create a fork in PoS
Agreed. Pow incentivizes time/energy spent on the thing that one already did spent time/energy on (which is also why there will never be a 1:1 copy of bitcoin). Pos does not have this natural self incentive. In any ethereum fork people can just stake on both forks which is detrimental with ethereums centralized foundation and a demi-god vitalik.
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This is more related to the proactive vs reactive security, IMO. Since performing this attack on Bitcoin would require much more than 51% of the hashrate to pull off, plus the direct cost of maintaining the attack.
More realistically it would immediately create a fork in PoS since I think they're more fragile to network partitions.