The odds are in the Jays favour but I will say the Yankees have a very easy schedule so it might be more likely than the odds are reflecting. I think fangraphs has the Jays at an 86% probability to win the division which would almost assure them the #1 seed since the closest team to them other than the Yankees is the Mariners and the Jays are 3 games ahead of the Mariners with 6 left and hold the tiebreaker. I am not sure the odds should be 86%. Maybe 75%.