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40 sats \ 13 replies \ @BlokchainB OP 4 Oct \ parent \ on: Crane count drops 44% across North American cities econ
I do construction operates on such low margins they need cheaper access to capital
Tons of projects on hold here in Canada from when rates were elevated. Some guys went bankrupt. I have a buddy who is 400k into a new retirement home development where the developer went bust and now it's in receivership. He is crying he didn't buy 100k of Bitcoin like I told him rather than the initial 100k he put in. He thought he was going to double his money within 18 months and now we are 3 years later and he has doubled down on the project twice and has no idea when and how much of his money he will see again.
He would have 1.2M if he had just pumped the 400k into Bitcoin.
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To be fair. That's not correct because he put the money in in tranches over 3 years so he likely wouldn't have a 3x but at least a double. But he would have had a 3x on the initial 100k that I told him put in Bitcoin instead of risky real estate development projects.
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Yeah, just this very fact alone can cause more contraction in the construction market. The risk might not be worth the reward.
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I mostly thought it was a bad idea because I know he was not educated in the market. He got lucky and had some extra money from selling a rental property he had for years that skyrocketed in value due to insane money supply expansion in Canada and thought his good fortune made him a real estate mogul. He got sucked into a project that promised big returns in a short time, that was actually a very good idea and location, but poorly timed and overindebted.
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"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
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I do wonder if someone reasonable actually sat down with him to explain Bitcoin (not someone like Saylor), whether he'd at least admit that there is a case to be made.
I think you'd have to acknowledge that bitcoin is "speculative" in the sense that it's not a productive asset, which is what Buffet is used to investing in. But then you'd have to explain that the speculation is quite reasonable given the arc of monetary history, and you'd have to get him to acknowledge the risks and injustices built up in the fiat system.
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I know a lot of smart people who are terrible investors and/or do not understand bitcoin or hate it for childish reasons
Senior citizens revert to childhood, circle of life, @siggy47 can confirm?
He is too old to understand it
Age is just a number has limitations
Anyone tried teaching a new trick to an old dog recently
He and Munger have great quotes and life advice because they were/are old and rich.
Even poor seniors on Medicaid and disability have kernels of life wisdom simply because of experience
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Buffett got lucky too
No question he has skill and knowledge and probably inside information but his long track record of success also requires luck
I hate it when 'successful' people say I am successful because I work hard and I am smart, nothing to do with luck... I hate it because they are wrong
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People claim that he simply capitalized on the credit bubble we are currently experiencing. Without the bailouts, the buffet would have been crushed.
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