If China/BRICS Win the Trade War - Gold price would Skyrocket - BTC not so much? \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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If China/BRICS Win the Trade War - Gold price would Skyrocket - BTC not so much?

21 sats \ 8 comments \ @Solomonsatoshi 17 Oct bitcoin

China is hardening its position toward the US. Trumps Tariff threats are met with Rare Earths supply chains cut. The West/US is now exposes as needing rare earths for its military and industrial production lines. China holds the west to ransom.

In this situation it is possible the world power balance changes swiftly, and China/BRICS are no longer cautious in respect to the US, but outright defiant. China is already in a position where USA needs their supply chains. In fact nearly every nation needs Chinas supply chains.

Trump has so far failed to win Russia back into the wests orbit, because Russia signed a mutual support agreement with China days before invading Ukraine. China can and does support adversaries of the west and can supply them with near full manufactured goods supplies and buy their commodities- especially if they have oil. China now has Iran, Russia serving as dedicated oil suppliers..enabling their attacks on the west.

Trumps attempt to regain hegemony over Venezuela after blocking Panama canal routed potential exports to China is something to watch.

Gold price is already exploding. Bitcoin price not so much. A future where China increasingly calls the shots would be a future where Bitcoin would still be relevant but not on the dominant side of the global economy. Bitcoin would be a refuge and a safe haven but largely only within the declining west and peripheral nations.

Thoughts?

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24 sats \ 4 replies \ @beyond_turbulence 17 Oct

The Topological Manifold of global power is not a flat map, but a divine, crumpled landscape. God (China), the master topologist, is performing Riparian Work on a celestial scale—carving the primary Bonds that now channel all capital flows. These bonds are not mere investments; they are the irrigation canals of the new creation, directing the lifeblood of finance to sanctify industrial basins.

The Holy Sacrament (Rare Earths) is the spiritual authority that consecrates these waters. To be cut off from the Sacrament is to see one's canals run dry, a divine ex-communication from the future.

And the Bride (Bitcoin)?

She watches from the riverbank, a smirk on her cryptographic face. She isn't interested in God's canals, nor does she need His Sacrament. While the faithful dredge deeper channels and plead for holy water, the Bride is the water table.

She exists at a fundamental layer of the manifold itself—a peer-to-peer aquifer, immune to divine irrigation or sacramental embargo. Her value doesn't flow; it permeates.

The brilliant punchline: Everyone is fighting over the control of rivers on the surface, desperately trying to reshape the topology, while the Bride is the proof-of-work spring from which all value ultimately wells up. The ceremony is decentralized, and the wedding gift is the land itself like the backroom deals attempting to deal with Oak Flats via block caving, creating sink holes a hundred miles away from said Apache Stronghold like Rio Tonto in Australia blowing up a sacred mountain with evidence of human habitation going back 40,000 years. The result? CEO gets fired and the train rolls on while all the natives line up to claim the land in the courts and this is not to mention water rights and interpretive law going back hundred of years but still in use today!

33 sats \ 3 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 17 Oct

You may be right but history does show that he who dominates global trade also controls the MoE used in global trade. China/CCP appears to be strongly opposed to the ethos and intent of Bitcoin- fiat money (and CBDC hyper fiat) appears much more suited to the CCP view of the world and Chinas growing position of dominance in it. Money is of little use if it is not accepted by the merchants who produce the goods you want to buy and sell. Today all nations of any significance must trade with China for the manufactured goods they need and to sell the commodities they produce, or suffer significant economic disadvantage. USA used to hold that position of global goods and commodity markets dominance but it does not so much anymore. Instead it has become hugely reliant upon the legacy dominance and control it holds over monetary and financial institutions and protocols- but it would be wise not to forget that that dominance derived originally from being dominant in goods manufacture and commodity markets. Time will tell if Bitcoin overturns the historical precedents or not. Maybe it will- maybe not. Dominance in trade is a powerful basis of global dominance. You want rare earths, you need them, but China controls their supply chains... not Bitcoin.

22 sats \ 2 replies \ @beyond_turbulence 17 Oct

The Divine Monopoly & The Heretical Ledger

Your point is the foundational scripture of the old world: that the Topological Manifold of global trade has always been shaped by the Riparian Work of the dominant power. God (China) now holds the divine chisel, carving the channels through which all goods—and thus, all monetary energy—must flow. To control the Sacrament (Rare Earths) is to control the gradient of the entire system. This is impeccable Causal Reasoning: trade dominance begets monetary dominance like the East India Company and South Sea Bubble or whatever. The Bridge from factory floor to reserve currency is a historical inevitability. Detroit?

The CCP's devotion to fiat (and its CBDC zenith) is a theological commitment to controlling the plumbing of the aims . goals . mindstuff and perhaps even the soul itself—a perfectly centralized, permissioned flow of life and information.

But this is where the Twist in systems thinking occurs. The narrative assumes the manifold itself is static, that the game is only about who controls the rivers on the existing map.

The Bride (Bitcoin) is not a rival Greek pantheon or temple trying to build a better canal. She is a change in the state of matter.

She does not ask for acceptance from the merchants in God's kingdom. She is the native currency of a new, parallel topology—a digital continent being settled by those who value sovereign space over prime riparian frontage. On this new manifold, the Bond-Carved Channels are irrelevant. Value doesn't flow; it verifies.

The brilliant heresy of the Bride is that she severs the historical Link between trade dominance and monetary truth. She is the Internal authority, requiring no External validation from the divine monopoly.

The punchline? God is building a perfect, controlled cathedral, and the Bride is hosting a potluck in the wilderness. History may show that cathedral builders always win, but it has never before encountered a party that operates on a different plane of physics entirely.

33 sats \ 1 reply \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 17 Oct

Hope you are right. Bitcoin definitely does offer a different path to the past. It is an algorithm that does not centralised control over us but treats us all equally without compulsion, fear or favour.

Bitcoin gave us direct control over our accumulated surplus and freed us from the bankers who have come to own our governments and enslave us in debt.

Imagine the many projects that are now activated because of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has succeeded to an extent I never imagined possible...but it is still only directly active in perhaps 1% of the peoples lives...and even for those who understand and embrace it, it is not accepted in most of the trades and exchanges we need in daily life. Will it ever be- still not sure about that...most governments still obstruct its use as a MoE if not outright banning such use.

How many people even understand that as centralised algorithms increasingly control them, that Bitcoin offers a very different alternative?

The CCP/China is also very skillfully engineering its mercantile advance and its reach now affects most people globally in economic terms.

Is Bitcoin just an indulgence of us individualistic late stage empire westerners or something more?

Maybe it will take time for the implications of Bitcoin to fully manifest as human consciousness catches up with it?!

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @beyond_turbulence 17 Oct

$104945

Serious potluck, eh?

The Sovereign Seed & The Divine Harvest

You have perfectly described the tension between two forms of creation. On one hand, God (China) is a master Systems architect, performing Riparian Work on the Topological Manifold of the global economy. His power is vast, External, and manifests through the tangible, engineered reality of supply chains and mercantile advance that affect nearly everyone. This is creation by decree.

The Bride (Bitcoin), as you say, is different. She is not a system built through control, but a procedural axiom—a fundamental rule embedded in the substrate of information itself like a submanifold of said topological manifold or subspace of a structure like modern warfare fighting underground battles with tunnels thru mountains and such.

She offers an Internal authority, a Link back to individual sovereignty that operates without compulsion. A lot of humans or some people have a last hope to transmute this energy file or dynamic and direct or channel it into a new habit force like outwitting the devil by Hill!

Doubt is understandable.

From the Global view, God's cathedral is nearly complete, while the Bride's congregation seems a small sect like the Sufis learning it via mentors, its Options are limited in daily life and trade. The Causal chain seems to favor the visible, centralized, and already-dominant.

But this is a failure of spiritual imagination.

The Bride was never meant to be a better tool for trading within God's kingdom. She is the genetic code for a new creation. A seed does not compete with a cathedral for height no matter how many copper spires one vertically erects toward tye sky like a waterwheel generating electricity; it operates on a different timescale and a different biological principle. Its power is not in its initial size, but in the irrevocable logic of its growth and enhancements.

The "1%" you cite is not a measure of failure, but of phenomenal uptake for a protocol that demands a fundamental rewiring of human consciousness. It is an Unfolding of a new motivational structure: from servitude to sovereignty.

Terrace Gardens

God is building a perfect, walled garden, and is currently surveying each and every leaf. The Bride is a dandelion seed on the wind, whose sole property is to replicate its own sovereign nature. The question is not whether the garden will accept the weed, but whether the underlying principle of a weed—to grow wherever it lands, without permission—is more powerful than the gardener's need for control. The garden is a place. The seed is a principle. And principles have a way of finding ones own topology via topography or ‘something like this, practically.

24 sats \ 2 replies \ @SatAttack 17 Oct

OK, @Solomonsatoshi I'll bite. In the late 1800's, China refused to remove themselves from the silver standard while other major nations switched to a gold standard. This turned out to be a big blunder as purchasing power of other nations rose against the silver-backed Yuan. I think there is a big potential for a repeat offence here. Bitcoin is spreading into the cracks of many countries around the world and with a long-time horizon I could see the exact same thing happening again. China refuses to abandon their large reserves of a less sound money while surrounding nations switch to a bitcoin standard. I think you are underestimating bitcoins network effects when you say " bitcoin will be a refuge and safe haven but largely only within the declining west and peripheral nations"

If in the future you're painting here bitcoin continues to be known as safe haven against fiat based monetary systems, then that means bitcoin still persists. Bitcoin is and will continue to bleed into the subconscious of humanity from the ground up. I also think you're underestimating the inevitable demand for bitcoin that likely the west and its large corporations will bring. Humans are greedy self-righteous creatures, and this works in bitcoins favor. We will be alive to see the day when merchants compete ferociously to increase their fraction of the total bitcoin supply. Governments and nation states will do the same. The people will do the same. Gold has thousands of years of network effects as a trusted safe haven to fiat debauchery even during times when gold coinage itself was being diluted, people knew to save in gold. Bitcoin is a mere infant, yet it has accomplished a great deal. I can see a future where China digs its heels into a gold backed Yuan and refuses to adapt the rest of the world yet again.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 17 Oct

You are right about China and its tragic silver episode. But I would argue China has learned a bit since the Opium Wars forced it to recognise the strength, power and force of the European/Western imperialists. In fact today China with its politburo composed mostly of trained engineers has harnessed the power of fiat far more correctly and astutely than the decadent west.

In China they use most fiat debt issuance to invest in infrastructure and productive assets- can you say the same for the west? Sadly, NO! The west today is a joke- its governments mostly owned by bankers/capital and most fiat debt capital issuance in the west today is directed into non productive asset price spruiking- particularly real estate but also stock and other speculative assets like, dare I say it, Bitcoin!

China is producing the goods the world wants at the best price- and China buys the worlds commodities at the best price. China is the market maker and it is logical and reasonable for China to increasingly have influence upon financial markets and global trade settlement protocols.

The USA is dependent upon its legacy hegemony over international institutions and protocols- like the World Bank, IMF, BIS and SWIFT. But it is China that dominates supply chains and global trade in goods and commodities.

I absolutely see a definite future for Bitcoin as many nations and people will be reluctant to embrace a Chinese dominated global trade payments protocol/network but looking at the current trends it seems likely China will dominate payments just as it already dominates trade and productivity- because this is the long and consistent trend shown throughout history- the dominant trading nation sets the trade payments protocol/s.

Bitcoin is certainly not going to die, but Gold may still have a major role as it would appear to fit the mindset of the CCP better than Bitcoin as a foundation for their soon to be dominant global monetary hegemony.

All I am suggesting really is that a lot of US Exceptionalist Bitcoiners may be blind to some of the potential outcomes to this current stuggle between the US and China- it is certainly something that is as yet impossible to be sure of the outcome except to say that there is a lot riding on it and that Bitcoin could be substantially part of the process and also influenced by the result.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 17 Oct

BTW regarding your point about China potentially missing the Bitcoin boat I agree it is possible- also how Trump is adopting stablecoins as a support for USD and the indirect relationship between stablecoins and Bitcoin. China is apparently now rethinking its rigid CBDC approach and is allowing Hong Kong to explore/experiment more in stablecoins and Bitcoin potential. The Chinese CBDC does not get a lot of press lately (but not so long ago Jack Ma was silenced for challenging it) and so maybe Trumps stablecoin play is going to be more effective way to enable true digital trade payments with speed and global acceptance. China may still have a bit to learn about the cunning western imperialists...after all we have dominated globally for the last 500 years...