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24 sats \ 2 replies \ @SatAttack 17 Oct \ on: If China/BRICS Win the Trade War - Gold price would Skyrocket - BTC not so much? bitcoin
OK, @Solomonsatoshi I'll bite. In the late 1800's, China refused to remove themselves from the silver standard while other major nations switched to a gold standard. This turned out to be a big blunder as purchasing power of other nations rose against the silver-backed Yuan. I think there is a big potential for a repeat offence here. Bitcoin is spreading into the cracks of many countries around the world and with a long-time horizon I could see the exact same thing happening again. China refuses to abandon their large reserves of a less sound money while surrounding nations switch to a bitcoin standard. I think you are underestimating bitcoins network effects when you say " bitcoin will be a refuge and safe haven but largely only within the declining west and peripheral nations"
If in the future you're painting here bitcoin continues to be known as safe haven against fiat based monetary systems, then that means bitcoin still persists. Bitcoin is and will continue to bleed into the subconscious of humanity from the ground up. I also think you're underestimating the inevitable demand for bitcoin that likely the west and its large corporations will bring. Humans are greedy self-righteous creatures, and this works in bitcoins favor. We will be alive to see the day when merchants compete ferociously to increase their fraction of the total bitcoin supply. Governments and nation states will do the same. The people will do the same. Gold has thousands of years of network effects as a trusted safe haven to fiat debauchery even during times when gold coinage itself was being diluted, people knew to save in gold. Bitcoin is a mere infant, yet it has accomplished a great deal. I can see a future where China digs its heels into a gold backed Yuan and refuses to adapt the rest of the world yet again.
You are right about China and its tragic silver episode.
But I would argue China has learned a bit since the Opium Wars forced it to recognise the strength, power and force of the European/Western imperialists.
In fact today China with its politburo composed mostly of trained engineers has harnessed the power of fiat far more correctly and astutely than the decadent west.
In China they use most fiat debt issuance to invest in infrastructure and productive assets- can you say the same for the west? Sadly, NO! The west today is a joke- its governments mostly owned by bankers/capital and most fiat debt capital issuance in the west today is directed into non productive asset price spruiking- particularly real estate but also stock and other speculative assets like, dare I say it, Bitcoin!
China is producing the goods the world wants at the best price- and China buys the worlds commodities at the best price. China is the market maker and it is logical and reasonable for China to increasingly have influence upon financial markets and global trade settlement protocols.
The USA is dependent upon its legacy hegemony over international institutions and protocols- like the World Bank, IMF, BIS and SWIFT.
But it is China that dominates supply chains and global trade in goods and commodities.
I absolutely see a definite future for Bitcoin as many nations and people will be reluctant to embrace a Chinese dominated global trade payments protocol/network but looking at the current trends it seems likely China will dominate payments just as it already dominates trade and productivity- because this is the long and consistent trend shown throughout history- the dominant trading nation sets the trade payments protocol/s.
Bitcoin is certainly not going to die, but Gold may still have a major role as it would appear to fit the mindset of the CCP better than Bitcoin as a foundation for their soon to be dominant global monetary hegemony.
All I am suggesting really is that a lot of US Exceptionalist Bitcoiners may be blind to some of the potential outcomes to this current stuggle between the US and China- it is certainly something that is as yet impossible to be sure of the outcome except to say that there is a lot riding on it and that Bitcoin could be substantially part of the process and also influenced by the result.
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BTW regarding your point about China potentially missing the Bitcoin boat I agree it is possible- also how Trump is adopting stablecoins as a support for USD and the indirect relationship between stablecoins and Bitcoin.
China is apparently now rethinking its rigid CBDC approach and is allowing Hong Kong to explore/experiment more in stablecoins and Bitcoin potential.
The Chinese CBDC does not get a lot of press lately (but not so long ago Jack Ma was silenced for challenging it) and so maybe Trumps stablecoin play is going to be more effective way to enable true digital trade payments with speed and global acceptance. China may still have a bit to learn about the cunning western imperialists...after all we have dominated globally for the last 500 years...
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