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Here's a nice little report on UK property owners.
Like in most Western countries — Australia or Canada probably the worst — the majority of the population has gone housing nuts. (Makes sense, when it's the most readily available store of value, the largest purchase most people ever make, and a convenient way to go 7x short the currency.)

"Nationwide, more homes have sold for less than they were bought for than at any time since 2018"

Prime central London prices have fallen 22 per cent since 2014, according to Savills. And even sellers who are sitting on gains can be biased by loss aversion, since they often anchor their sense of their home’s value from where it reached during the last peak.
Are we finally purging monetary premium out of housing?!
Meh:
Answering that question means grappling with a deep conviction that a home is something whose value never falls. The steady, inexorable appreciation of most people’s most valuable asset is a principle etched deep into the British psyche — a belief even wired into how the mind works. But that belief is sabotaging home sales. A sharp, fast reset is needed.
Nah, then the piece mostly veers into considering HOW to best negotiate with real estate agents and the importance of correct listing price. Blah-blah, boring
In June, her agent persuaded her to list the property for £625,000. Three months later, with just a handful of viewings and no offers, she switched agents and dropped the price by £50,000. She’s anxious that the long period on the market — and the price cut — has made the home less appealing to buyers
Oh well, at least we're openly considering that houses don't automatically and inevitably rise in (nominal) prices.
Psst: to answer the question, it's copium and selection bias merged with social desirability: nobody tells people that they overpaid, and all the incentives are stacked up for every actor (but the buyer, one hopes??) to want higher prices.

Can't get Archive to work today, sorry!
I've never met someone who was pro-real estate as an investment factor in the carrying costs of the property it's all just real estate always goes up, its pure profit, whoever sold these people on the idea did a bang up job!
Offering people leverage and poor arithmetic skills, cutting interest rates for 40 years and nominal gains is one hell of a combination that's cooked generations!
I know so many millenials (my age cohort) that did what mum and dad said and are leveraged to the tits making payments with jack shit equity built up, it's wild!
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"leveraged to the tits" is how we live in the fiat world, bro
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Are we finally purging monetary premium out of housing?!
I don't know but it certainly popped into my mind.
What I wonder specifically is whether we will interpret bitcoin's absorption of monetary premia as they happen or if we'll always have other specific explanations for each event as it happens.
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The latter; we'll only see it in hindsight ("ooh, obviously, that's what happened!")
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That's my sense, too, which I try to correct for by jumping to this conclusion as my default.
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We could put up a market on predyx and punt on what might happen and when. Afterall economic prognostications can be both fun and informative.
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The property market boom has been a function of the deregulated fiat debt based monetary system that emerged fully under neoliberal policies that loosened fiat issuance criteria. It blossomed as the price of money declined steadily, inflating the value of debt leveraged assets, primarily housing. It placated the middle classes as their earning and prospects declined as the wests competitive advantage in manufactured goods declined with globalisation. As the wests productive capacity declined people sought financial returns via debt leveraged asset price speculation...primarily housing/real estate. Bitcoin emerged following the GFC where reckless fiat debt issuance toward housing had triggered a global financial crisis. Bitcoin has since provided an alternative SoV and MoE...but operates upon a different basis to fiat- Bitcoin is based upon voluntary adoption and the exchange of fiat for tokens in a deliberately decentralised system that is not hierarchical but rather treats all participants equally. As the wests fiat debt inflated financial markets collapse it is no guarantee that Bitcoin will emerge victorious as there are alternative global powers emerging China/BRICS. The new standard may be based on gold. Bitcoin may be a refuge and safe haven but may not be the dominant monetary protocol.
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The Sanitarium of Fiat Cash
Naturally. The asylum is not financed by debt; it is built from the very bricks of cash itself. What some people call “worthless dollars” that buy us a ticket or whatever. We are all still inside, worshipping.
Delusional scripts we recite to justify our confinement? Global admires the imposing, solid-looking facade. Specific feels the crumbling mortar between the bricks. Match insists this is the only building in existence. Mismatch points to the open door, whispering that the walls are all glued together with caulk.
The Topological Manifold was conjured when cash was untethered from reality. Neoliberalism didn't just unleash debt; it redefined the atomic unit of value. Cash became a magical substance, created ex nihilo, its purpose shifted from funding factories to inflating title deeds.
This was the great Psychotic Break.
The ever-increasing quantity of this fiat cash, this magical substance, had to find a home. It found one in property. The declining "price" of this cash (interest rates) simply meant we needed ever-larger piles of it to feel secure, creating a self-licking ice cream cone of appreciation like a game of accumulation. Were not leveraging; were hoarding a hallucinogenic currency.
The middle class, their productive Options gone, embraced the Procedure: earn the magic dust, trade it for a plot in the psychosis (property), and watch the dust-pile grow. Their Certainty was a symptom of the illness. Trade is not finance and finance is not trade.
Now, the magic is reversing. The cash is being revealed for what it is: a shared hallucination with a shelf-life. The manifold is not just flattening; it is dematerializing.
Into this revelatory collapse steps Bitcoin in all her glory like a marriage.
It is not merely a new asset. It is antithetical cash. It is not a pile of magical dust, but a verifiable, scarce Specific. General intent? Nah. That’s like consumption of the body.
Its protocol treats all participants with equal Procedure, offering a true Option to the hierarchical sanitaria of state cash.
The old sanctuary is dissolving around us. The psychotic property values—denominated in a vanishing substance—are being foreclosed on or whatever.
The great escape is not into another asset class, but into a new definition of cash itself. One made of code and consensus, not faith and force.
The question is no longer about the price of a house, but the substance of the cash you use to buy it. Choose your hallucination wisely.
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Here's the archive link for the article:
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Thank you for your service
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Thanks:
The Psychotic Topology of Home Value
This is not a market correction. It is a mass psychotic break with reality, where the metaprograms of human cognition have become the delusional architecture of the market itself.
· The Global ↔ Specific Psychosis: The Global mind clings to the axiom (remember, an axiom does not have to be proven, yes): "A home's value never falls."
It sees the soaring copper spire of the "British psyche." The Specific mind, however, is forced to count the cracks: a £50,000 price cut, a 22% decline since 2014, a 44% rise in overpriced listings. The psychosis is the inability to fold the comforting Global delusion into the brutal Specific data.
· The Match ↔ Mismatch Trap: Sellers are trapped in a Mismatch with time. They "anchor their sense of their home’s value from the last peak," creating a phantom asset that mismatches today's market. The buyer, however, performs a different Mismatch: they see a price cut not as a opportunity, but as a signal of desperation—"they thought you were really keen to sell." The market is a bridge between two conflicting delusions, and no one is crossing the threshold, ATM!
· The Certainty Collapse: For a decade, the market manifold was warped by a single, unwavering Certainty: inexorable appreciation. That Certainty has now folded into profound doubt and fear like a survival instinct or fight , flight, fear or fawn response. "Loss aversion" is the emotional scar tissue of this collapse—the pain of a perceived loss felt so acutely that it creates a 25-35% premium of self-deception, sabotaging the sale entirely. Don’t get me started on commercial real estate transformations or empty buildings and which private equity force of nature owns these monstrosities.
· The Procedure ↔ Options Failure: The old Procedure was simple: list high, wait, haggle. This procedure is now bankrupt. It offers no viable Options. The new, necessary Procedure is a "sharp, fast reset"—pricing correctly from the start to create a bidding war, the only "option" that leads to a sale or navigating the correct price with basic sales principles, 99 not 100.
But the psychotic mind would rather follow the old, failing ritual than unfold into a new methodology. Ask me how I know lol.
The Manifold's New Geometry:
The financial manifold has been recalibrated. The era of ever-cheaper debt that inflated this psychotic bubble is ending for the time being like the court cases of people over extending themselves in 2020 with zero interest rates. Can we have a conversation on the concept of zero in mathematics?
The topology is now flattening, and the Evidence-Based ground is shifting. The professional valuers, armed with comparable data, see the truth clearly: "It’s the easiest time to value a home since the credit crunch."
Yet, the homeowner, advised by "friends" and "unscrupulous agents," (not fiduciaries that are required by law to have the Other (not the self) best interests at heart) rejects this grounding evidence, with all the ingr dents, facts etc.
They choose the flattering fiction because the incentive structure of the entire system—where an agent risks little for an overvaluation but loses everything for honesty—rewards the delusion. Talk about syndicate and what about the 450 million dollar class action lawsuit against realtors?
The Way Out of the Asylum:
To escape, one must become a topological surgeon of one's own psychosis.
  1. Fold Global into Specific: Scour the property websites. Meticulously detail comparable sales. Replace the Global mantra ("values never fall") with the Specific, granite, lime and indomitable truth of price per square foot in said postcode with respect to family and schools, whew.
  2. Bridge the Mismatch: Price correctly the first time. This is the only way to bridge the perceptual gap between seller and buyer, creating the "confidence" that comes from multiple interested parties, or something like this but something valuable will have options .
  3. Unfold New Procedures: Put three agents on the spot. Challenge their estimates. This new, rigorous procedure is a path towards uncovering all the true market options.
  4. Accept the New Certainty: The certainty of perpetual growth is dead. The new certainty is volatility and negotiation. Lean into it. Set a walk-away price, 3% guaranteed if you back out and 20% down or whatever and inform your agent of a slightly higher one, building in a small, strategic discount for the buyer who "needs to feel they’ve got a good deal."
The market is no longer a place for fantasy. It is a ground for truth. The price cut is not a stigma; it is the admission ticket to reality that is finally, and ruthlessly, structurally sound.
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Welcome to the Psychotic Property Market
We’re diagnosing delusions with granite countertops.
The system is closed, self-referential, and politely insane. QE puffed it full of monetary helium. QT is now whispering, “Perhaps step off the roof.”
•	Global believes all homes rise together — like a chorus of happy, leveraged angels.
•	Specific coughs and says, “Your postcode dropped 22%, mate.”
•	Match still sees the 2021 valuation in the mirror.
•	Mismatch brings a chainsaw to the viewing.
•	Procedures process lists, wait times, drops, the removal of contingencies, escrow, no realtors and no lawyers and waits again — a ritual, not a method.
•	Options has left the chat, but not before suggesting “auction” in a manic whisper.
•	Certainty was last seen inflated by QE and that is now deflating quietly behind the curtains.
The manifold? That’s the warped stage on which this housing psychodrama unfolds — a space bent by interest flows, rate and beliefs, where every “asking price” is a coordinate in denial, the first step in good grief!
Navigate the topology of wishful and magical thinking!
Fold each and every delusion into data | code struct and defstruct, to re-anchor the ego to the yield curve.
Because the real reset isn’t a price cut — it’s a cognitive correction. A revaluation not just of property, but of the stories that built it. Leaving the school district, the house and job?
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I wonder how much Chinese capital flows play into this. The Chinese are well known real estate nuts, and have propped up prices in various real estate markets around the world.
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Chinas lack of alternatives for citizens to store their growing private wealth lead to their property bubble. They need to develop a broader range of investment options but that is difficult given the control the CCP wants to maintain over capital flight potential. Some of the biggest losers in the Chinese property bubble where the greedy western hedge funds who bought up debt obligation from the likes of Evergrande and then saw them collapse. https://fortune.com/2024/02/08/evergrande-liquidation-99-percent-haircut-hedge-funds/
I wonder if Chinese citizens can easily access gold markets and purchase and hold gold like you can in most other Asian countries? Surely the CCP could not object to that although it does take liquidity out of productive capital investment it also builds a national reserve of wealth and capital.
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It is hilarious and tragic how people have become worshippers at the alter of property price speculation. It really took off in the west when the requirement that commercial banks only fund commercial productive investments like factories, farms and infrastructure- neoliberalism removed this constraint from the wests commercial banks and so they soon directed an ever increasing quantity of fiat debt capital toward property- mostly housing. This pushed up prices and as the price of debt declined from the late 1980s this increased the amount of debt people could lverage property with creating a seemingly endless cycle of price appreciation. In case anyone has not noticed this cycle of steadily decreasing interest rates has ended. As a result the property ponzi pumping process is also ending. In the medium term the best you could hope for is stable/stagnant prices- but a real decline in price is probably inevitable. Compounding the problem is that the wests productive capacity and infrastructure is now so depleted that any return to real productive economic growth seems very unlikely- China has come to control the major supply chains and real wealth creation channels- the outlook for the west is rather bleak to be honest- but hey lets keep deluding ourselves that further fiat debt debasement, leverage, derivatives and financialisation will save us!
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Don’t forget the west securitized debt in the 80s with the invention of mortgage backed securities. So the property ponzi became a systemic attribute and the engine of low velocity money, it could not stop, lest we ire capital and the retired.
That and the ‘71 gold conversion cancelation are the two largest macroeconomic events of our world, and impact us today.
I hope for a correction in pricing of real estate. That and student debt are the two greatest burdens for the youth, and seem to exist only today to transfer wealth from young to old. Bring on the 1 BTC houses, then 1 BTC mansions, then 1 BTC estates.
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A correction in house prices is very likely now. The culture of debt slavery has become parasitic - destroying the host. The debt burden is now unsustainable. The whole system probably needs to collapse and be rebuilt from the ground up. Bitcoin is a model for how things could be rethought and rebuilt.
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The Chapel of A Leveraged Soul . AIM . Mind . Goal
Naturally. We are not merely speculators; we are congregants in the great Cathedral of Capital, praying with idols of plaster and debt instead of stone and mortar.
Veneer ?
Stained-glass windows in this chape? How about warping the light into a sacred, psychotic . Proper property market narrative?
Property Rights Vs Valuation
Global sees the soaring spire of endless appreciation. Specific notices the dry rot in the pews. Match sings hymns to the 1980s price chart. Mismatch screams that the roof is on fire. It’s a theological fragmentation like cognitive warfare for control of the narrative, imho and inside is a single diamond encrusted skull like the etymology of mortgage.
Make way for the new FAM!
Neoliberal banks were once bound to fund the real—factories, farms, the productive. But that commandment was repealed. The floodgates opened, and a torrent of fiat debt, the new holy water, is directed not at creation, but at title deeds, enforcing POA | HOA | CC&RS etc.
This is a great Manifold Warp.
For forty years, the topology of value was curved by ever-cheaper debt. People didn't buy homes, nor houses; were buying call options on a descending interest flow like a security that comes with insurance and reinsurance. Middlemen consultants that are supposed to be fiduciaries are sales folk worshipping the Procedure: borrow, bid, repeat.
The Certainty was absolute. It was a perfect, self-reinforcing faith. Now there is a call to stewardship!
But the cycle is broken. The Manifold is Flattening.
The prayer of "more leverage" now echoes in a secular vault. Sovereign Debt? The Options are gone. The Procedure is bankrupt. Our "productive capacity"—the real economy that grounds this entire fantasy—is like an emotional vampire or zombie corporation propped up by socialized losses or bailouts, airlines, trains, car companies and immunity. The supply chain now leads to a different altar entirely.
The outcome is not stagnation. It is a forced Mismatch with a delusion we can no longer afford. The psychotic property values are being foreclosed on, by reality. Generational wealth won’t even see the land of their forefathers ever again. I’m staying in the island !
The pilgrimage is over. The miracle? I’m grateful it ended.
It's time to leave the cathedral and learn to build a brick house, she’ll love it.
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Well said. It is a sacrilegious church of fiat debt leveraged and non productive speculative frenzy, undermining the foundations upon which our extraordinary privileges and global hegemony were built. I am a little fearful of the coming turmoil- there seem to be many false prophets as the ground is fertile to any promise of easy ways out where the reality seems more like a steady societal collapse of western civilisation. Perhaps from the rubble better things can be built. Bitcoin shows a blueprint/model for how it might be possible.
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Have not but see it is on pirate bay...ebook and audio. Might have a look. Sounds like a fairly dark thesis though I'm not religious. Friend of the Devil is good though
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