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42 sats \ 3 replies \ @HardMoney OP 25 Oct \ parent \ on: KG apparently tied to DOJ investigation Stacker_Sports
The Nobel peace prize seems like someone had obvious insider information. I agree the reason prediction markets are so accurate is they are a mechanism that distills all information into a clear price signal (including material non-public)
Will be interesting to see what scandals comes out of it
Another example like dildos would be like this diplo 5k thing. He could purposely control the outcome and have some buddies bet beforehand. Could be tougher to find proof than being able to vet whether whoever threw a dildo or streaked at a game had a financial bet on it. https://polymarket.com/event/how-fast-will-diplo-run-5k
I think assasination markets won’t be as mainstreamed or have significant liquidity. Feels like regulators will push that offshore / onto dark web markets which I would think have less liquidity and would be an area asking for fbi investigators to track you down on if something like a Charlie Kirk bet happened
Even if they don't specifically have assassination markets, anything like "Will Trump finish his 2nd term?" is inclusive of assassination, so an assassin could determine the outcome.
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That’s a good point. Sometimes the fine print in these are restrictive or too subjective tho. Could read like “if he is impeached or resigns for health reasons”
Oracle could suspend the payout arguing criteria wasn’t met arguing a subjective take or just rugging it altogether and suspending the market
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But then the problem is that the prediction market isn't really answering the question people want answered because it's omitting part of the outcome set.
It's all part of trying to predict the system from inside the system.
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