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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi OP 23h \ parent \ on: @Solomonsatoshi's bio
Yes I read the fees 1% but there are multiple markets I have placed predictions and the resulting return shows far less than they would if only 1% fee.
Maybe I have not understood some aspect but will continue to monitor as the bets finalise as it seems from the current figures in my portfolio that more than 1% is extracted.
For example I have 8000 shares against the prediction that bitcoin will reach USD$140k in 2025. I paid .65 for each share and market price is now .75 yet my profit is shown as only 112 sats or 2%. .75/.65 is much greater than 2%...it is over 15%.
Maybe I am not accounting for dynamics of odds/pricing if I were to sell them on market now?
If I wait until market closes and I win I should receive at least 100/65 x 8000- 1%?
If I wait until market closes and I win I should receive at least 100/65 x 8000- 1%?
In the above mentioned scenario you will recieve 7983 Sats.The win fee is only .20% and there's 1 sat fee for transaction on the market you mentioned. So this will be 17 Sats in fees deducted from your 8000 shares.
(Each share you buy at Predyx stands for 1 satoshi.)
Maybe I am not accounting for dynamics of odds/pricing if I were to sell them on market now?
Yes sir. Predyx works on LMSR which reduces the odds if a sell happens and increases when a buy happens. There should be high volatility in odds in case the market has lower liquidity, and vice versa.
Selling before the market is ripe often is less rewarding because the LMSR detects the trend is shifting.
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Ok Thanks for that and I stand corrected.
Am impressed that the actual fees are very reasonable.
Just the perception of gain is less due to market price dynamics.
It must be quite a complex algorithm to price the ever changing market odds!
Well done and all the best.
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I'm happy I can clear the doubts.
I recommend you to place some predictions in higher liquidity markets if you're more of a trader. There are many markets on Predyx which have very high liquidity and corresponding volume that will reward traders much more relatively.
Here's an example what to look for if you want to enter and exit a market
The left one (red circle) is for the volume, the right one is for the liquidity.
Keep in mind the higher the liquidity and volume are on a market, the odds (what you called margins) are less volatile while trading i.e. while buying or selling both.
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Yes that makes sense.
I just love the chance to try and predict the future and see what others think too.
It is a very interesting marketplace as you put your money where your mouth is and there is a real tendency for it to tend toward the truth due to market forces.
We had a similar online market here in New Zealand years ago called 'ipredict' run by one of the universities statistics department, though it used fiat, and it was shut down by the government ruling party - that government did not appear to like a free and open marketplace in peoples expectations- they would rather try to control them! They have close associates will commercial polling companies...
So imo prediction markets are a vital part of freedom of speech and democracy- as well as damn good fun.
Hopefully bitcoin can help keep prediction markets open and free of government meddling and censorship.
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