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How Big of a Threat is Strategy to Bitcoin?
243 sats \ 14 comments \ @spiderman 16 Nov bitcoin
Assuming they will hit a liquidation point by next halving, do you feel they can take down the whole Bitcoin eco-system with them, as they are now like the mother of all whales?
I am more worried about their impacts on adoption (as people will rush for the exit) than the price alone!
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135 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 16 Nov
Why do you assume they will hit a liquidation point by next halving?
They currently have 8.2B in debt (not all coming due at once) and 61B worth of Bitcoin. Obviously any sale of Bitcoin to fund debt repayment would be a shock to the market but liquidation seems highly unlikely.
More likely they can't pay the prefs and suspend dividends. That would crush the stock and there would be a lot of pressure on Saylor to reduce Bitcoin exposure. Which again would be a shock to the market but not a liquidation.
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50 sats \ 1 reply \ @optimism 16 Nov
More likely they can't pay the prefs and suspend dividends.
That's what I was thinking too. The risk is sitting all on the shareholder side.
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140 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 16 Nov
Yup, it's all the sucker's problem
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176 sats \ 1 reply \ @327c19b153 16 Nov
Just in general, @DarthCoin's Homo Fiatus meme says all you need to know. But if you really want the numbers:
  1. Strategy is not an existential threat to Bitcoin.
    • No BTC-backed margin loan, no hard “liquidation price,” no mechanical wipeout event tied to a single price level.
    • Their balance sheet is still deeply BTC–asset positive: ~$61.9B in BTC vs $8.2B in debt ($11B including prefs).
  2. They are a serious short–medium term price and narrative risk.
    • If they’re forced to sell a big chunk (hundreds of thousands of BTC), the market will puke hard: brutal volatility, scary headlines, fake “Bitcoin is dead (again)” narratives.
    • But the scale of their stack (~642k BTC) is comparable to flows the market already absorbs (815k BTC sold by long-term holders in 30 days; ETFs hold 1.32M+ BTC).
  3. The real risk sits on Strategy’s capital stack, not on Bitcoin’s protocol.
    • Shareholders, bondholders, and preferreds eat the actual solvency/refinancing risk.
    • The network keeps hashing; nodes keep validating; rules don’t change.
  4. Worst case for Bitcoin is painful but ultimately healthy.
    • Strategy blows up → their ~3.2% of supply gets redistributed over time from a visible corporate whale into many other hands.
    • Short term: deep drawdown + adoption FUD.
    • Long term: more decentralized ownership, less single-entity concentration, same 21M cap.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @spiderman OP 16 Nov
Thanks for the analysis dude. That is what I am looking forward to, a discount on bitcoin of and when MSTR liquidates at least part of its stack.
Who knows, maybe my UTXO will inherit some of the sats coming out of MSTR then, if they sell big enough 🤣
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11 sats \ 0 replies \ @k00b 16 Nov
bitcoin will be fine. price will hurt. market will sterilize and get healthy again.
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6 sats \ 2 replies \ @Sandman 16 Nov
Man! Strategy are in serious dept and am worried, if the market drops lower than this, they will be left with millions Of losses, that might post a negative effect to the market.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @oliverweiss 15h
Saylor might become the most hated man on earth…
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @aljaz 16 Nov
Millions in losses are accounting error at their scale. Its the billions that become problematic
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @OT 16 Nov
Nah, not worried.
Some of the influencers have been saying that whales have sold 1 or 2 milion BTC these last couple of months. We're only down like 25%
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 16 Nov
Moderate
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 16 Nov
Only buy Bitcoin if you want to be part of the peaceful revolution seeking to build an alternative to the fiat debt slavery bankers cartel that owns your government.
Bitcoins true underlying value is primarily based upon its ability to provision MoE outside of the state imposed Jewish bankers operated fiat debt slavery cartel. This is the only area where Bitcoin offers true value...and the potential is huge.
Saylor has not enabled any improvement in MoE ability - he has reduced it with his SoV speculative commodity narrative.
Saylor-Strategy et al are best disposed of in the coming fire sale where sats are up for grabs at closer to their current true utility value- probably around $5-20,000/Bitcoin.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @DarthCoin 16 Nov
Do you understand this meme? It represent perfectly the danger that Strategy pose to Bitcoin.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 16 Nov
You don't use sats here on SNs and so are evading one of the few opportunities to use sats in a P2P MoE context and thus support growing a circular Bitcoin economy. Instead you cynically deliberately use CC shitcoin which should ideally only be used by anyone not yet capable of attaching a wallet...you do not have that excuse. Go back to your sackcloth citadel and think about it. The revolution will only happen if and when we use Bitcoin as a MoE when and where we can.
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