pull down to refresh

110 sats \ 1 reply \ @327c19b153 2h \ on: How Big of a Threat is Strategy to Bitcoin? bitcoin
Just in general, @DarthCoin's Homo Fiatus meme says all you need to know. But if you really want the numbers:
  1. Strategy is not an existential threat to Bitcoin.
    • No BTC-backed margin loan, no hard “liquidation price,” no mechanical wipeout event tied to a single price level.
    • Their balance sheet is still deeply BTC–asset positive: ~$61.9B in BTC vs $8.2B in debt ($11B including prefs).
  2. They are a serious short–medium term price and narrative risk.
    • If they’re forced to sell a big chunk (hundreds of thousands of BTC), the market will puke hard: brutal volatility, scary headlines, fake “Bitcoin is dead (again)” narratives.
    • But the scale of their stack (~642k BTC) is comparable to flows the market already absorbs (815k BTC sold by long-term holders in 30 days; ETFs hold 1.32M+ BTC).
  3. The real risk sits on Strategy’s capital stack, not on Bitcoin’s protocol.
    • Shareholders, bondholders, and preferreds eat the actual solvency/refinancing risk.
    • The network keeps hashing; nodes keep validating; rules don’t change.
  4. Worst case for Bitcoin is painful but ultimately healthy.
    • Strategy blows up → their ~3.2% of supply gets redistributed over time from a visible corporate whale into many other hands.
    • Short term: deep drawdown + adoption FUD.
    • Long term: more decentralized ownership, less single-entity concentration, same 21M cap.
write
preview
0 sats \ 0 replies \ @spiderman OP 2h
Thanks for the analysis dude. That is what I am looking forward to, a discount on bitcoin of and when MSTR liquidates at least part of its stack.
Who knows, maybe my UTXO will inherit some of the sats coming out of MSTR then, if they sell big enough 🤣
reply