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33 sats \ 12 replies \ @optimism 8h \ parent \ on: Ukraine agrees to full terms of US's proposed peace proposal Politics_And_Law
What EU MSM is saying over the last few hours is basically that they "want to discuss it".
Also:
They're going to try to convince the EU to not back it and then blame the EU.
From what I've heard, and I might be missing something, all the bad stuff in this deal is bad for Ukraine, not for Europe. I don't get why Europe wouldn't back it if Ukraine is cool with it. Europe just can't keep funding this war forever, though. The end needs to be close.
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The war ending is bad for Europe because can they defend Finland, the Baltic states and Poland without the US, while being busy securing Ukraine? I think no.
Not enough F35s and definitely not enough anti-drone platforms, since that's what they've been using F35s for. Potentially not enough nukes.
I think that there is some catch here. Zelensky cannot say no because he doesn't have the political capital. He made that clear. Trump and Putin want this. The only ones that can say no are the EU
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The war ending is bad for Europe because can they defend Finland, the Baltic states and Poland without the US, while being busy securing Ukraine? I think no.
I don't get what you're saying, can you break it down?
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Putin has been making war since 2008. If he "wins" in Ukraine where is the next war going to be?
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Trump has been making clear that because he is unhappy with the share of EU contributions that the US will not honor Article 5 if Russia invades.
Thus: the EU no longer has a US ally - NATO is politically dead. It has an aggressor on the east border, one that will, when this war ends without a Russian defeat, stretch from Northern Finland to Southern Ukraine.
That's the position the EU is now finding itself in. If they collaborate on this plan they are fucked, if they say no, they're fucked. Its getting fucked time in the EU.
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It could happen, but I don't see things that way. I'm not buying that Putin is gonna invade other European countries, and if he does, it won't be now. By the time it goes down, Trump won't even be in the White House. Maybe I'm being naive, but that's just how I see this whole situation. The thing that actually worries me is the weapons lobby.
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This whole 'no allies' thing is super speculative. I reckon the US won't leave us hanging, even with Trump as prez.
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Prof John Mearsheimer, famous geopolitical theorist, has said time and again that Ukraine is going to lose the war of attrition and that Trump doesn't want it to take the blame for it. How to let Ukraine lose without being accused of abandoning them entirely?
- Propose a peace plan that the Russians will accept (improves US-Russia relations)
- Sell weapons to the EU so that they can supply them to Ukraine (the US never abandons its allies)
- Leave the final decision and long-term consequences to the EU (so the US can gracefully pivot its attention to China)
Art of the Deal baby!!
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Update:
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