Confidence curve I think is different than, but closely analogous to volatility. We know bitcoin will reprice (where sats are the main denomination), just like looking back in time when earning whole bitcoin from answering surveys seems absurd today. But the sats won't have significant impact on the volatility, especially as the network absorbs more trust (value), and the mkt cap swells.

The wild dynamic will be what the velocity layer (L2) does, and to see if it can start setting the market price, because the LN should keep taking more and more bitcoin out of circulation by locking it into HTLCs (LN channels). Eventually you get stuff like LNmarkets, trading, and more commerce all over attracting network effects. So the LN should start setting the bitcoin price with extreme efficiency because of its extreme velocity and near free transactions, both in trading and commerce. L1 meanwhile, should directionally become the settlement layer for LN economic activities. The LN activity should drive the total value down to L1 BTC though, opposite of the internet where the protocol drives value up to applications (web, google, amazon). This in turn makes it ideal for large settlement (should see blocks that have enormous value) of international trade.

9 years maybe. LN went from slowly to suddenly in 2021, so I'm hopeful. I get flak from bitcoiners all the time saying most people's interaction with bitcoin will be LN or some better L2 that replaces it. This is why I think the LN is so fucking important to get right. Critical in fact. I wish people would drop the L1 ambitions with forks and other bullshit, and move their concerns a level up. L1 doesn't need anything right now. And if people want to get rid of Taproot then you need to get rid of the LN as well. Start over. The Taproot upgrades are specifically meant for the LN to take a massive leap forward. We're way behind already. I don't even know anybody with a Taproot address. Oddly, maybe ordinals will help get adoption penetration. I don't know, I'm always open to being very wrong. I'll finish with this though, if you see the volume of bitcoin locked in LN channels start moving up dramatically, we're likely on the verge of an extraordinary move and adoption.