Yeah. Petrodollar.

For what it's worth, I actually hope we follow a longer timeline. Nearly all my friends and families are nocoiners, despite my best efforts.

It would be really chaotic economically if we hyperbitcoinize in something like ten years. Patience and diligence are key to staying sane as a bitcoiner.

And I'm still bullish on price, even with a 40 year timeline

But why would it be bitcoin? Again, the price that I'm asked to pay for that frozen pizza might be shown to me, in bitcoin units, but looking forward a decade from now, nonetheless three decades, perhaps that amount of bitcoin presented to me is computed in real time based on a basket of components -- all used to compute in real-time the price the grocer is willing to sell a frozen pizza to me.

Why might a grocer go through all this just to establish the price to charge for a frozen pizza? Because my offer to buy a frozen pizza might get routed to a number of grocers, and my shopping concierge app will find the grocer selling at the best price, considering, of course, the cost for transport from that grocer to my house (performed by Tesla's automated fleet of autonomous delivery wagons).

So in that instance, that grocer is setting the price of the pizza based on the cost from the supplier to restock that pizza, the cost of the grocer's labor that day, the cost of electricity (for keeping the inventory refrigerated), the cost of building's lease, etc. All those might be presented in bitcoin using "just in time" / spot price but the amounts will be based on the underlying components, and will fluctuate in price -- whether they are communicated in bitcoin, or dollars, or other commodity currency even (barrels of oil).

But it will all happen behind the scenes by software. So I think your list of answers to the question needs another option -- either "never" or "invalid question".

Confidence curve I think is different than, but closely analogous to volatility. We know bitcoin will reprice (where sats are the main denomination), just like looking back in time when earning whole bitcoin from answering surveys seems absurd today. But the sats won't have significant impact on the volatility, especially as the network absorbs more trust (value), and the mkt cap swells.

The wild dynamic will be what the velocity layer (L2) does, and to see if it can start setting the market price, because the LN should keep taking more and more bitcoin out of circulation by locking it into HTLCs (LN channels). Eventually you get stuff like LNmarkets, trading, and more commerce all over attracting network effects. So the LN should start setting the bitcoin price with extreme efficiency because of its extreme velocity and near free transactions, both in trading and commerce. L1 meanwhile, should directionally become the settlement layer for LN economic activities. The LN activity should drive the total value down to L1 BTC though, opposite of the internet where the protocol drives value up to applications (web, google, amazon). This in turn makes it ideal for large settlement (should see blocks that have enormous value) of international trade.

9 years maybe. LN went from slowly to suddenly in 2021, so I'm hopeful. I get flak from bitcoiners all the time saying most people's interaction with bitcoin will be LN or some better L2 that replaces it. This is why I think the LN is so fucking important to get right. Critical in fact. I wish people would drop the L1 ambitions with forks and other bullshit, and move their concerns a level up. L1 doesn't need anything right now. And if people want to get rid of Taproot then you need to get rid of the LN as well. Start over. The Taproot upgrades are specifically meant for the LN to take a massive leap forward. We're way behind already. I don't even know anybody with a Taproot address. Oddly, maybe ordinals will help get adoption penetration. I don't know, I'm always open to being very wrong. I'll finish with this though, if you see the volume of bitcoin locked in LN channels start moving up dramatically, we're likely on the verge of an extraordinary move and adoption.

Will be when you start paying it in sats. https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/chart/energy/XB1