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Thanks for taking the time to explain it patiently. No hard feelings on my side as well.
I also appreciate the value that came out of this discussion i.e. to warn the trader if he's moving odds too extremely.
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas!
NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS!
Would you have liked to know that 50k of those shares were a guaranteed loss?
Ok that would’ve been helpful
I’ll allow C3P0 to tell me that
I'm thinking a lot of this stuff through for the first time and there are very interesting perverse incentives introduced by prediction markets.
The endogeneity between a market existing and a participant being able to impact the outcome is one of those. It's like the philosophical problem that observing a system changes the system.
There's a lot to unpack with these things, but I don't think the answer is to throttle voluntary transactions between consenting adults. Participants need to be aware of the incentives they're creating in the real world when they place money on an outcome.
It's like the philosophical problem that observing a system changes the system.
My bad if I sounded too harsh. English isn't my first language, so I don't always realize how my words come across. I wasn't trying to offend anyone or make random accusations.
My take on betting sites in general—not specifically Predyx—is that they’re built for profit. It wouldn't make sense otherwise. And that profit comes from users, some of whom might be caught off guard, so they need some sort of protection. That’s what I’m getting at. I'm glad this talk led to some changes on Predyx; it shows I wasn't totally off base and that it was worth bringing it up.
Personally, I think Bitcoin should embrace all kinds of use cases beyond just being a store of value, but that doesn't mean I have to dive into everything. Betting isn't really my thing, but hey, people can do whatever they want with their money.
Also, regarding opinions, you should be able to take them in stride—both sides have value. About the platform itself, I think you guys should have a way to freeze markets in case of clear manipulation, like that 1.4M items market on SN. You should probably check with @k00b about that.
Again, sorry for any misunderstanding. No hard feelings on my end.