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102 sats \ 3 replies \ @Aardvark 5 Jan \ on: If there's a market about you, you better have alerts for sudden moves... econ Politics_And_Law

This isn't the first time this has happened either. If I recall there were some suspiciously large bets placed by Garett Jin on Chanpeng Zhao getting pardoned right before he did. The same Garett Jin associated with a wallet that made some extremely well timed shorts on bitcoin in October minutes before trump tweets that dropped the market.

There's no real proof that it's Trump, but either somone in that administration has loose lips, or they have a security issue.

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102 sats \ 0 replies \ @optimism 5 Jan

Or, they're insider trading? Occam's razor.

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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @Scoresby OP 5 Jan

Right, it could be anybody, but I'm wondering if there is some way to use this defensively:

  • Start a market that describes what you are afraid will happen to you
  • juice it with a lot of liquidity and good odds
  • monitor for any sudden changes
  • run for the hills
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112 sats \ 0 replies \ @Aardvark 5 Jan

Here's one for you. Check polymarket for Venezuela outcomes and look for USA seizes BTC. Find the largest YES betters and plug the wallets into Arkam and see if they are loading up on OTM bitcoin calls.

That's your signal that Trump is going to announce a massive BTC seizure.

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