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On top of that real estate is highly localized. These aggregates of nationwide data are interesting but in the context of people living in an area they have little utility.

The OP says predictable. What do they mean? A specific house in a specific market? Probably not but why would one want the macro to be predictable??

You’re absolutely right that real estate is hyper local. The market in NYC is very different from the market in Austin.

In this case, I see “more predictable” as real-time data availability on a market level. Having information on how “hot” (or “cool”) the market is would help inform pricing for sellers and offers for buyers. It's effectively moving from delayed snapshots to real-time market sentiment.

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If participating in prediction markets was a normal part of daily life, then we might expect robust markets around average local housing prices, maybe even markets around average prices for certain types of houses.

I find that people do tend to be very interested in what homes in their neighborhoods will sell for, so maybe there could be functional markets on individual houses. I do have more neighbors than Predyx has users, after all.

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