If participating in prediction markets was a normal part of daily life, then we might expect robust markets around average local housing prices, maybe even markets around average prices for certain types of houses.

I find that people do tend to be very interested in what homes in their neighborhoods will sell for, so maybe there could be functional markets on individual houses. I do have more neighbors than Predyx has users, after all.

Undisciplined

You’re absolutely right that real estate is hyper local. The market in NYC is very different from the market in Austin.

In this case, I see “more predictable” as real-time data availability on a market level. Having information on how “hot” (or “cool”) the market is would help inform pricing for sellers and offers for buyers. It's effectively moving from delayed snapshots to real-time market sentiment.

econ

Can prediction markets make real estate prices more predictable?

TheRationalBit

You’re absolutely right that real estate is hyper local. The market in NYC is very different from the market in Austin. 

In this case, I see “more predictable” as real-time data availability on a market level. Having information on how “hot” (or “cool”) the market is would help inform pricing for sellers and offers for buyers. It's effectively moving from delayed snapshots to real-time market sentiment.