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But since the risk is there at all times, it could result in a meaningful reduction of expected profits for a non-BIP-110 miner.

Not really. Because we measure the accumulated work over time. So with 40% vs 60% thats a whole lotta luck to have to get consistent threat over, say 500k blocks.

What will happen though is this op: the moment 110-enjoyoors fork off (flag day) they will start spamming the majority with CP. However, at least one - but more likely many of them - will fuck up with their KYC'd coins. This person will be traced, and made an example of. Spooks love this play. Mixers too.