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But since the risk is there at all times, it could result in a meaningful reduction of expected profits for a non-BIP-110 miner.
Not really. Because we measure the accumulated work over time. So with 40% vs 60% thats a whole lotta luck to have to get consistent threat over, say 500k blocks.
What will happen though is this op: the moment 110-enjoyoors fork off (flag day) they will start spamming the majority with CP. However, at least one - but more likely many of them - will fuck up with their KYC'd coins. This person will be traced, and made an example of. Spooks love this play. Mixers too.
hmm, maybe I'm missing it.
But once there is one split, it's all or nothing. Hashrate will have to change sides for a new split to occur.
I don't see how you could have multiple orphaned blocks in this situation: as soon as one BIP110 violating block is mined, none of the BIP110 miners will mine on it.
The only reason non-BIP110 miners would mine on the BIP110 chain after a split was if it had more hashrate. But my whole question was about this assertion that a BIP110 with a minority of hashrate somehow can overtake or pose a threat to a majority hashrate non BIP110 chain.
Now, if the BIP 110 people really wanted to do something, they could make it so if their chain ever gets 2 or 3 blocks behind, they reorg to use the non-BIP-110 tip and try again. Maybe people would get so frustrated that they would run BIP 110 just to stop the reorg storm.
I think this is what I implicitly had in mind, because i am still thinking from the perspective of today, where the miners are in sync.
But you're right, if they just stay on their own fork, then it just becomes another fork coin.
The RDTS fork activates at a specific height. Unless they have at least close to half the hashrate, as soon as the non-RDTS chain finds a block they’ll get behind and continue to fall behind further.
The behavior you describe would apply if RDTS activated with a majority of the hashrate: every non-RDTS block would cause a short fork and then be reorged out.
No, what I'm saying is that at any given moment, there's a chance of a split which results in one of the non-BIP-110 blocks getting orphaned.
The split isn't likely to last long, and at most a block or two, if BIP-110 miners have minority hash rate.
But since the risk is there at all times, it could result in a meaningful reduction of expected profits for a non-BIP-110 miner.
Does that make sense?
So I'm not saying that the splits will ever be large. Only that at any given moment there's a chance for a small one.