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My understanding is that Saskatchewan (I spelled that right on the first attempt!) would likely join Alberta.
What would the other provinces and territories likely do?
Cry and bitch about losing their honey pot of taxable production
Well, that's a given. I'm thinking that the new nation of Albskatchewan could have its own ports if any one of the surrounding provinces or territories joined.
The thing about BC is that the inland is more conservative leaning and has a lot of forestry, mining, farming etc.
The coast is mainly lib elites / indigenous so its tough to gain a port foothold.
Best option is honestly 51st state for western Canada imo. Make Vancouver capitulate
It's been a while but the US likes to admit states in politically offsetting pairs, so most likely it would come in as two states: BC and Alberta + Saskatchewan + territories.
one slave state and one free state
Missouri compromise or Kansas Nebraska act
Yep, but even the last two states Alaska and Hawaii were likely to vote opposite each other. I'm not sure if the pattern holds for the 90 years in between. You hear people bring this up when California periodically talks about splitting into smaller states, though.
It seems to be ramping up. Especially if no real pipeline projects get built. This thread articulated it perfectly:
Canada doesn't have the port facilities to ship energy to China in any appreciable quantity. Canada isn't going to build those facilities in a timely fashion, not without walking all over the First Nations and the climate lunatics, both of whom Carney and his Liberal Party are enthusiastically beholden to. Even assuming we did build those facilities and start shipping oil to China in vast quantities, it would be the easiest thing in the world for the US Navy to interdict those tankers, and there would be precisely nothing the all but nonexistent Royal Canadian Navy could do about that but cry.