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I'm not sure I understand. Saylor may buy more or less based on what he sees in the price, but my question in the above comment is when does the market learn about his actions?
If he buys a whole lot, when do the people who price in the news do their pricing in? Is it while Saylor is buying? Is it after he announces that he bought? Or is it before he even begins buying...but in this last case, I imagine it's only the insiders who know what's coming who can do the trade.
If you are referring to the larger argument of the OP, I'm mostly trying to say there isn't a correlation between Saylor's announcements and a particular kind of movement in the price of bitcoin.
If there was a correlation, we could question whether saylor buys because of the correlation or saylor's buys lead to the correlation.
Maybe I should be asking "can we determine when the market "prices in" Saylor's actions?"
There might be no consistency to when the market prices in his buys, depending on what his decision making process is.
Somehow he's coordinating these transactions ahead of time with extraordinarily large bag holders. Unless we know how that's happening, it will be hard to know what to expect wrt the timing of price movements.
This is some of why I tried looking at a full year's worth of data. If you look at the average of daily closes for the 7 days before every buy announcement and the average for the 7 days after every buy announcement and then compare:
- Mean (post − pre) ≈ −$40 (basically zero)
- Median (post − pre) ≈ +$1,043
- 58% of buys had post-week avg higher than pre-week avg (42% lower)
Maybe there is a slight avg higher price in weeks after Saylor announced that he bought bitcoin.
I think even if we can't find a reliable effect, it's still a little remarkable that there doesn't seem to be a correlation to any real market price action in the areas around his biggest announcements.
There were 12 separate events where Saylor announced purchases over 10k bitcoin. 4 of these were close to or above $2 billion transactions. I figured comparing these large ones to the smallest announcements might also reveal some measurable difference in price behavior -- but unfortunately I didn't find a correlation. I'd be very curious if someone with some real statistics training could find something else.
The hypothetical I'm trying to work through is what happens to the market price if Saylor is convincing large bitcoin holders, who weren't looking to sell, to sell to him (perhaps even by offering them something in return that we aren't aware of).
I figured comparing these large ones to the smallest announcements might also reveal some measurable difference in price behavior
You're assuming the purchase is an independent variable though. What I was proposing is that the purchases are larger or smaller depending on market features: i.e. he buys less when buying more would dramatically move the price.
I wonder if the size of his buys has to do with how much is available near the spot price. Do we know anything about how he organizes these purchases?
You might have the causality backwards in thinking that the size of his buys should be driving prices.