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Yes, this makes a lot more sense than my zany interpretation. I would have expected the size of trades Strategy does even to take months to set up. Yet, it is the case that his announced trade price is rarely more than +-3% from the closing price on the day he makes the announcement. So the actual price negotiation can't be concluded too far from when he actually concludes the trade.
Either way, couldn't we still hope to pick up some signal from this buy? Perhaps by expanding the date range or shifting it earlier?
It depends what the counterfactuals are. If he's convincing people to sell who weren't otherwise going to sell, then there wouldn't be anything to see.
Just like there's a question of why Saylor buys when and how he does, there's a question of why people sell to him when and how they do.
I'm going to start with the second part of this comment and circle back to the first, which is very meaty and I think will be sufficient to put a bow on this discussion.
This is exactly what you'd expect from my version of events, where he's lining up these big purchases ahead of time. The prices they're settling on are lagged prices.