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I don't see any winter. Why should I believe that winter would be coming?
Paul Schmelzing, for the Bank of England, showed in the epicly poorly timed year 2020, that (real) rates just go in one direction, and it's not up:
Bitcoiners say to extend your vision/horizon, Scoresby-la
Oh sure, but I prefer to see the greater trend as the work of dragons (or in this case technology).
I never could figure out how seasons worked in Song of Fire and Ice, but being a humble human, I am doomed to experience the sweep of this story on such a short time scale that all I can see is the crazy upswing.
Since all we really care about is what our friends and neighbors are doing (damn those Lannisters), it doesn't matter whether we are experiencing the winter of 1620s or 2020s. Winter still sucks when it comes.
pray it never comes on my watch! ("and now my watch begins"?)
The post industrial economy including AI, is powered by electrons.
China has a giant wall of them feeding its consumers and producers, at half the price of any other industrialised economy.
China has the huge advantage in scale and price with a massive nuclear, solar, hydro and wind based electricity power generation surplus projected for 2030 while the USA is stuck in fossil fueled redundancy and faces chronic electricity generation shortages and rolling power cuts if projected AI power consumption is ever to be achieved.
China won the trade war.
USA cannot fight a war of any scale now without the supply of refined rare earths China holds.
The neoliberal financialisation and globalisation of the last 40 years have crippled the US military industrial complex and now Chinas domination of global trade in manufactured goods and commodities poses a real threat to the USA and its hegemony over the legacy organs of financial institutional global domination.
WW3 has begun as a mercantile contest while many remain ignorant and in denial of the reality that control of supply chains is a huge strategic lever and China holds it while enjoying $1.2 Trillion trade surpluses and a globally expanding network of infrastructure including tertiary level trade payments protocols and institutions that compete with the legacy USD/petrodollar/SWIFT hegemony.
I would say the TV series was the worse thing that could've happened to OG Song of Ice and Fire fans, but I kinda think he had already lost the plot prior to the TV series coming out.
Just another one on the heap of promising starts where the author never figured out how to tie all the threads together.
You know how in the Song of Fire and Ice Books they keep saying "winter is coming" and then G RR Martin just stops writing books and is probably gonna kick it without ever finishing and we'll end up with a big fat lie because winter never comes?
Being a Bitcoiner (or a goldbug) is a lot like this. You've read the story so far and it seems pretty clear that that big ass wall of ice in the north is there for a reason...and all signs point to an imminent breach. We may not be literary scholars or fancy editors but we can pick up on the foreshadowing.
What we weren't counting on was that the author lost interest. Don't really know how that part of the analogy applies to the current situation re prices of gold, but darnit, sure feels similar.