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We are currently averaging at around 1.6 MB per block. Removing the witness discount would bring us back to 1 MB blocks. This would be a 37.5% decrease in L1 transaction throughput. Over the past week we have been seeing a ~16% reduction in block production rate. (presumably due to the US winter storm) Despite this fees are still very low. Yes, a 37.5% decrease would increase fees more, but I wouldn't go as far as saying that fees would immediately explode to levels of 2017 or April 20th 2024.

What should then be the next move after that?

After such a change L1 would probably become more of a final settlement layer and less useful for small payments. So we should focus on improving L2 scaling solutions like Lightning or Ark.

If we want to scale Bitcoin eventually then we should just keep Segwit where it is IMO. Doesn't Segwit make batched transactions + Lightning channel opens... significantly cheaper? If Bitcoin is to be better adopted in the future... the extra blockspace/scaling (without changing anything currently) would be really helpful...

My point is that if people are concerned about spam/data graffiti then by raising fees they get less graffiti. Either you increase demand for blockspace... or decrease throughput

Way cleaner and less controversial than Knots/Bip alternatives being proposed today IMO

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