Bitcoin is now down about 44% since its peak last Octoer. Other cryptocurrencies are down much more. This isn't the deepest drawdown the space has ever had, but as far as crypto-winters go, this is the coldest.

<first time? meme>

This drawdown is coming at a time when the future of the dollar has, perhaps, never been more in doubt among the general public. This is precisely the environment where Bitcoin is supposed to thrive. Instead people have flocked to the original safe haven asset: gold.

Gold is down 10% this week.

It's not early. There are numerous crypto ETFs right now. There are zero barriers at this point to anyone buying it. It's fully mainstream.

I still can't spend bitcoin hardly anywhere. Things like SN and Predyx are exceptions. In almost all cases, we're still using non-digital money for digital spaces. This isn't mainstream.

there's not really an online Bitcoin (or even Ethereum) community like there was a few years ago.

I still seem to be able to find a lot of cool Bitcoin people online.

Wall Street has never been more excited about crypto-adjacent ideas like stablecoins and tokenization...but there's no evidence that value will accrue to these networks.

This part I think is true. It seems to me that the value proposition of Bitcoin and (and even things like crypto) is that they route around the awful mess of a financial system that exists. It's not a surprise that the establishment of that system is trying to do a bait and switch.

We have an incredibly crypto-friendly administration.

Uh, so why did the trials of the Samourai guys and Roman Storm not result in exoneration? The state is still hostile to self-custody, no-kyc, freedom of money movement.

If you're a talented tech person, why are you doing crypto stuff instead of AI?

Because the problem we're trying to solve hasn't been fixed yet.

Meanwhile AI is crowding out Bitcoin specifically. For a long time, one of the big ideas behind Bitcoin was that miners could exploit access to cheap or stranded electricity. But if you have access to the power grid, why are you mining Bitcoin (which has never been that great of a business) instead of building an AI data center? Of course we've seen this play out already, as various publicly-traded Bitcoin miners have pivoted themselves into being data center plays. And this is important. A key element of Bitcoin's security is to have a robust network of miners, to avoid attacks. If hashpower declines (because those miners are moving into a new business) how secure does the network remain?

If hashrate goes down, hashrate goes down. It's not like we know how much proof-of-work is enough. Also, other than this recent winter storm, I don't think the hashrate has actually been going down.

As longtime Bitcoin investor Nic Carter has been writing about for a few months now.

Oh boy. Quantum may make tradfi people skittish. But it seems to me that Bitcoin is making progress towards good solutions should we need them, despite what Nic Carter says.

In the Epstein files, a search for Bitcoin yields 1,520 hits.

The business model [of Bitcoin treasury companies] was never clear to say the least

Yes. I won't argue with this one. There's always stupid shit every cycle.

So again. This may not be the industry's biggest downturn, but it's the worst.

This is a great chance to get Bitcoin cheap. We are not the same.