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Darnold definitely choked last year in his two big games against the Lions and in the playoffs, but he didn't choke against the Rams this year. And the Pats defense is way worse than the Rams.
True, but your thesis here is that the pressure of the Super Bowl is qualitatively different.
What outcome would surprise you the most?
More pressure, but it doesn't seem like it benefits average defenses -- not like we haven't had a lot of overs come in. It's only when the defense can make you rush more than usual that it seems to have an outsized effect. And maybe that's not even the explanation, just that elite defenses have really been the difference almost every time one is in a Super Bowl. There are a couple exceptions: 2008 Steelers over the Cardinals (defense got lit up even though it was elite by most metrics) and the 49ers defense that lost to Mahomes, but it was dominating for 3.5 quarters.
I don't agree that the Pats defense is way worse than the Rams. The Rams had maybe the best defense in league in the first half of the season but the second half and playoffs they were not close to elite. Their secondary got exposed and they have no sacks in the last two games. They gave up an average of 26 points in the playoffs, which would have been more if they didn't play a snow game in Chicago.
The Rams defense might be better overall but down the stretch and in the playoffs the Patriots defense has played better. Doesn't mean they will win. I don't think they can score on Seattle like the Rams did which means their D will probably spend a lot of time on the field and wear down in the second half. We saw that when the Panthers played the Seahawks. Panthers played them very close in the first half and then got their doors blown off in the second half.
I just don't know if the Patriots will move the ball enough to stay on the field and give their defense a chance to perform well. Pretty much the only weakness in Seattle's D is you can attack them vertically downfield. That's what opened up the run game for the Rams. I don't think the Pats have the WRs for that and Maye is great but he is a 2nd year QB.
On the other hand, how often does a career choke artist win a championship?
I have the same base case as you, but I also won't be at all surprised if Darnold has 5 turnovers and takes 8 sacks.