The flip side of how these non-sports markets can be manipulated by insiders, of course, is that the markets themselves can change the rules whenever they want to. This is some next-level bullshit.
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The flip side of how these non-sports markets can be manipulated by insiders, of course, is that the markets themselves can change the rules whenever they want to. This is some next-level bullshit.
I suspect they're trying to prevent assassination markets from forming indirectly. Assassination markets scare the bejesus out of me.
It is kinda wild. I think I saw it shared here, but there was a video of someone basically saying prediction markets could replace delivery services. Instead of paying uber eats for delivery, you have a market for whether you will receive a certain item on a certain day. This incentivizes people to take yes at favorable odds then complete the task.
Obviously it’s hyperbolic and an extreme example, but it does make sense in theory. Same could apply to assassinations
I found it on Instagram by searching google: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DSDvhsjj_Ob/
Damn, you just got me hooked on prediction markets again.
I still own delphi.market, and I still can't believe the domain was so cheap to get. I should do something with it.
It’s not too late! You could be the displacer of food delivery services!
That's some funny reverse psychology shi. Like, "I bet you're not gonna cook me a 7 course steak dinner!" "Oh yeah? Just watch!"
The possibilities are endless
that seems a little ridiculous. prediction markets work better when lots of people and liquidity are concentrated on a few questions that interest everybody, not fragmented to lots of questions that each interest almost nobody.
Yes. That’s why I said it’s an extreme, hyperbolic example
100%
I see this as somewhat principled. Well, as much as principled can be when you're gambling.
I feel like it would be very hard to police consistently. If you refuse to pay out due to someone being killed, what if a sports team loses a championship game because one or their players was killed? It seems impossible to draw clear boundaries on what events will be paid out and what won't
That's why I'd guess their policy is "if this outcome was plausibly influenced by the death of someone, we do not payout."
A lot of events are interconnected though, and people will argue over that word "plausibly". and this adds another layer of uncertainty to the resolution criteria.
Not that I think that'll stop any degens from yoloing into the prediction markets
Oh yeah. But they're having their cake and eating it too, since "this despot will be out of power" basically walks up to the assassination line and sticks a toe over it.
I don't see them as scary. I bet those in power do.
Maybe Epstein's files would be empty and he would have died a bum if they existed?
Assassination markets world only work on celebrities, and out of these, politicians are the most likely target. They could act as a balancing power and all things considered I think they'd be a net benefit for society.
They should at least cancel the market and give everyone their money back.
Yeah. Pretty sure the amount that'll get tied up in legal fees and lawsuits otherwise will be more than that.
It depends how clear the resolution criteria was. If it didn't explicitly state that death didn't count, then I suspect you're right.
This is partly the problem with user created markets on predyx. Often the resolution criteria is vague or doesn't make sense.
Take for instance this Bitcoin market from today:
"Resolution Rules: This market will resolve to YES if the close price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candlestick at exactly 12:00 ET (noon Eastern Time) on March 1, 2026 is higher than $68,000. This market will resolve to NO if the YES condition is not satisfied according to the primary resolution source at or before the exact market close time 2026-03-01T23:59:00.000Z. Only data timestamped at or before market close time counts. If no 1-minute close price exists at exactly 12:00 ET due to downtime, resolves NO. Resolution Sources: Primary: Binance BTC/USDT spot market candlestick data (select 1m timeframe and Candles view)"
Which is it 12et noon or 23:59? and the market ends in 6 hours which I believe would be the UTC close.
This is why I am typically very skeptical of buying shares on user created markets. I’ve been burned and it’s just annoying
There is always a rug risk on those user markets especially when you don't know the creator.
Yeah, they don't want to be on the hook for mistakes like that. There will have to be restrictions on user created markets and payouts.
User created markets should have a review process where someone at predyx or AI reviews the market for any potential issues before allowing it to post.
That and they should limit the size of markets based on past resolution accuracy or require something like a bond to cover payout mistakes.
I think they’ll end up implementing lots of little things like that.
I got my Predyx payout. Maybe a good marketing moment for Predyx
They are scared of US Feds coming at them for “death” market betting.
Honestly is a Black Mirror esque slippery slope lol
Man that is a dark thought. Insiders at the FBI / CIA betting on death markets and subtly engineering that outcome without accountability
WOW
At PREDYX we paid out. It was not an assassination market. It was a market about "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026" there are various reasons why someone could be out as a Supreme Leader.
https://beta.predyx.com/market/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2026-1767317153
Come check-out your friendly neighborhood Bitcoin only Prediction Market: https://predyx.com
Ok I get that we don't want assassination markets, but if someone is dead he is also out of power or am I mistaken? What must have happened for this to resolve in favour of those betting on YES? Maduro style kidnapping? Him being replaced by a local rival? What about power transition with a triumvirate with 2 "new" supreme leaders-if he remains the third is he out of power or not?
Wow, they really just decide to switch the rules whenever they feel like it? Crazy.