Realistically, in 20 years, how much will 1 bitcoin be worth to people? Will 1 bitcoin be true generational wealth? How many sats will one earn per day? How many sats will it take to buy a loaf of bread? Fun to think about.
1000 for most compelling answer
1,000 sats paid
Darkbulb's bounties
Hopefully in 20 years we are pretty much on the Bitcoin Standard. So, the Everything Divided By 21 Million equation applies here.
The question is difficult to answer because "everything" means "everyone alive participating in the market" and that is not an easy number to guess, if we have a world war on a similar scale to WW2... here is some data on global population estimates over time: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/
Between 1927 and 1951, the global population increased by 500 million. Between 1951 and today, it has rouphly tripled, which is a period of 72 years.
Many believe that a nuclear war would lower the global population substantially, but I'm of the opinion that if 500 million people were added to the net population during the worst period of history for numbers of death, and assuming that, like Chernobyl's surroundings, in 30 years given no big addition of fallout the animals are proliferating again, I'd guess that worst case scenario in 20 years time given a nuclear war the world's population will still grow by about 20%, putting us at around 9.6 billion population, which puts the sats per human 218750.
If food cost amounts to about average 10% of income, and divide that number again by 365 we get a global average daily food cost per human around 60 sats, which can probably be equated to roughly 3 loaves of bread, so, 20 sats for a loaf of bread.
Daily income will probably then average at 600 sats, accommodation cost probably around 4800 sats per month, and total income around 18000 sats per month.
This is just an extrapolation from history and assuming no massive change in the proportions of costs from 25% cost of housing versus income, and around 5% cost going to food.
If the Bitcoin Standard is well into effect for a lot of the world's population by this time, the proportions of costs could change a lot. The reasons for accommodation costs being around 25% of income is biased upwards a lot by the fiat spigot pouring loans into housing, so it could drop. The supply of housing could be a lot tighter at that point, but conversely it could be a lot cheaper due to the influence of such things as automation of production and techniques to use cheap local materials for housing, the food cost may change if humans also change to a more paleo diet, meaning the near elimination of chemical farming and high component of animal products as inputs.
And then there is transport costs - currently a large proportion of all prices is based on the sheer amount of compelled transportation forced on us by governments trade agreements, this could also change to a lower transport proportion but it might be balanced out by an increase in the use of energy more broadly. I doubt that "renewable" energy is going to increase, but small nuclear reactors and more distributed, and resilient power infrastructure, gravity batteries added to geothermal and small scale hydroelectric, a big reduction in the scale of power production and lower waste due to distance of movement, more use of in-place sources like natural gas.
A lot is going to change in 20 years time, who knows, maybe someone will finally bring Tesla's papers out of their hiding place and we will have energy cost drop dramatically and if that happens the population estimate will probably be too conservative, and may see 12 billion in 20 years time due to the increased energy inputs in food and building to transform more base materials into necessities.
I've only been alive for a little under half a century and a hell of a lot has changed in this time. Technological deflation of prices has been more than 10x, which has allowed the bankster scam to pretend and extend a long way. The collapse is coming to their system, so, who knows. It could go either way, but as a Bitcoiner I am putting my bets on the net change to the positive once the population of rentseekers is reduced as they are already in a big fight with each other for control and the percieved "kings of the world" great golden goal, which simply is not going to happen. We are among the new nobility that will rise once their last gasp is inhaled.
Just adding some grains of salt to my estimates. Technological efficiency improvements may well be a lot better than we expected, which would bias the answers downwards in proportion with an increased population and energy resource base. Generative AI already is revolutionising the efficiency of numerous industries in designing low material, high efficiency devices, and cultural change may drive a reduction in the annual production of electronic and mechanical devices after a hypothetical implosion of the densest population centers due to corruption and a diaspora into the countryside as the reasons for transport are greatly reduced by cheap and ubiquitous high bandwidth connectivity and AI assistance in resource use optimisation. Too many things to factor in.
Foreseeing the future is a harder problem than cracking cryptographic keys and encryption, really.
Let's just hope that the situation in 20 years time is net positive compared to now.
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I never expected such a detailed reply. Thanks for playing!! You should write a book
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I can't say it's on my bucket list but I can transcribe my thoughts quickly thanks to being a touch typist since 1991. It used to be something I wanted to do, until age 21 I compulsively read everything I laid eyes on, but I struggle with top-down structure and improvise everything until I just get it. It certainly helps with writing code to be able to touch type, I cannot recommend it enough to anyone who wants to deal in text on a computer.
Maybe when I have made a dent in my top priority bucket list items I will get to writing something. I do write some things now and then in a sort of dramatic frenzy, my most recent some time back was a synthesis of my understanding after reading several sites descriptions of cult manipulation:
I don't write things like that very often. Well, ok, maybe a few a year. The Indranet white paper was another one I spent a lot of time working on more recently. But it's that urge to crystallise and broadcast ideas that keeps me here.
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20 years from now will be year 2043. That will be 4ish halvings.
I am guessing 1 BTC worth $6,000,000
So that would be: Sats 100,000,000 / $6,000,000 = 16 Sats/$
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Seems pretty consistent with other answers here. In that case, heres a loaf of bread zap ⚡️
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LOL fiat lovers...
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without toxic maxis Bitcoin will never reach mass adoption.
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Enough.
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20 years??? That's 3650+3650 days... that long we don't know... but we do know that in 20 years there will be a block of 0.75 coins)))) this is more important than the price in the dollar... then a counter question...what can you buy for $10,000 in 20 years?
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