The bet is for $5,000. Valsorda will pay if a shared secret from ML-KEM-768 – a recently approved quantum-resistant algorithm – is recovered from a public key and ciphertext, either from a classical or quantum attack. And Green is on the hook to pay if a shared secret from X25519 – a widely used elliptic curve algorithm – is recovered from a pair of public points on the curve, whether through classical or quantum means.

In theory, X25519 should be easier for a CRQC to defeat than ML-KEM-768, which is designed to offer a more robust defense against quantum cryptanalysis. So Green is essentially betting that advances in cryptanalysis will reveal weaknesses in Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation (ML-KEM) before quantum systems come into play

Much sexier mechanism than using a prediction market.