Lehman vs The currently tumbling banks \ stacker news ~bitcoin

928 sats \ 8 comments \ @tomlaies 10 Mar 2023 bitcoin

Lehmans AUM (assets under management) were 600b. They were 680b + 20 in own capital shortly before that. But lets go with 600b which is 847b in todays Dollars

Currently tumbling banks: SVB 220b, FRC 200b, SBNY 115b.

So is it 535b today vs 847 in the gfc? Not so fast. Lehmans assets were utterly worthless before the fall. We don't know exactly about the balance sheets of these banks yet. Maybe a few startups are utterly worthless, who knows which corporate bonds would survive in the worst case scenario from now on. Also back then there was Bear Stearns with 423b AUM.

History hasn't played out yet. Chill and lets see if things actually will get bad at all this time.

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11 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheBTCManual 11 Mar 2023

Amazing how a few months of higher interest rates have banks of this size falling over so quickly, wonder if they're going to be the key to the pivot and how they jawbone bailouts and QE when the whole narrative is still all about inflation

2 sats \ 2 replies \ @sandbeach123 10 Mar 2023

If those banks are bailed, it would be a total defeat for the USD. The difference now is that bitcoin exists. They would have to be crazy to rescue any bank in the future.

2 sats \ 1 reply \ @tomlaies OP 10 Mar 2023

It looks like at least for SIVB all customer deposits up to 0,25m will get saved but the bank itself not: https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23013.html

2 sats \ 0 replies \ @Jonathan_Adly 10 Mar 2023

93% of its deposits are not insured though. Definitely some people getting rekt. Mostly VCs and tech bros, but it will bite- because all those idiots are probably running their personal expenses on debt.

1 sat \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 10 Mar 2023

Also, a billion today isn't what a billion was in 2008 Inflation adjusted. Still, it does seem as if the dominoes might be tumbling. Look at First Republic stock this morning, or the regional bank index. Each financial crisis is different, so perhaps history isn't so useful.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @tomlaies OP 10 Mar 2023

But lets go with 600b which is 847b in todays Dollars

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @om 11 Mar 2023

Gov: aaah yet another crisis we need to expand the money supply, let's set reserve requirement at 0 Gov: aaah inflation we need to contract the money supply Banks with 0 reserves due to 0 reserve requirement: chuckle we're in danger

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @faithandcredit 11 Mar 2023

Things didn't actually get bad in 2008, even if there were no bailouts. Yes some people would have lost money but life goes on. My point is that whether there is a feeling of crisis or not depends on the media, and they are not acting like there is a crisis. So there isn't! Even tho people are losing money just like 2008.