You're apparently assuming that the mining signalling will remain static.
RDTS has been signaling for something like six months, but has yet to breach 1% of hashrate support. Anyone wanting a soft fork to succeed would want to signal early to shift the Overton Window and get people to prepare. The idea that miners don’t signal for six months, but suddenly start signaling at the mandatory signaling height doesn’t pass the giggle test.
the "fork off" narrative shows exactly why Core is so unpopular with certain parts of their intended userbase.
It’s the clear result of the RDTS supporters course. Committing to a flag day activation as the first and final position in a community conversation signals unwillingness to negotiate. Between getting active to enable a loud minority trying to walk all over the network or doing nothing to let them run aground, what did you think is the expected outcome?
But, externally, anything could happen with a new hard fork. We have no idea how that's going to play out. Bitcoin's reputation could take a major hit. The new chain would definitely claim to be the "monetary" Bitcoin compared to the spam, institution, and crypto-casino beholden "original" Bitcoin.
The new network’s figurehead is Luke, who has endeared himself to everyone else by famously working great with others, and calling people liar and pedo left and right for the past years. He has a history of poor security practices, publicly advocates for absolutist rule, and has zero support from the dev community and economic actors. The new network having any credibility at all will be an uphill battle. Bitcoin resisting a vocal minority imposing its will on the network will make it look more reliable if anything.
The main predicament is watching this trainwreck in slo-mo as a bunch of people who we used to respect set their social capital on fire. Sucks for the people that let themselves be suckered into this ritual self-sacrifice, but thanks, I guess.
RDTS has been signaling for something like six months, but has yet to breach 1% of hashrate support. Anyone wanting a soft fork to succeed would want to signal early to shift the Overton Window and get people to prepare. The idea that miners don’t signal for six months, but suddenly start signaling at the mandatory signaling height doesn’t pass the giggle test.
It’s the clear result of the RDTS supporters course. Committing to a flag day activation as the first and final position in a community conversation signals unwillingness to negotiate. Between getting active to enable a loud minority trying to walk all over the network or doing nothing to let them run aground, what did you think is the expected outcome?
The new network’s figurehead is Luke, who has endeared himself to everyone else by famously working great with others, and calling people liar and pedo left and right for the past years. He has a history of poor security practices, publicly advocates for absolutist rule, and has zero support from the dev community and economic actors. The new network having any credibility at all will be an uphill battle. Bitcoin resisting a vocal minority imposing its will on the network will make it look more reliable if anything.
The main predicament is watching this trainwreck in slo-mo as a bunch of people who we used to respect set their social capital on fire. Sucks for the people that let themselves be suckered into this ritual self-sacrifice, but thanks, I guess.