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Are you asking about the 55% threshold for miner signalling or the deadline at block 961631?
The 55% threshold was a possible way for BIP110 to activate in each difficulty period this year. If during anyone one difficulty period 55% of blocks had signalled for BIP110, the soft fork rules would have started being enforced by nodes running BIP110.
However, since it was unlikely that even the ridiculously low threshold of 55% would be met, BIP110 also includes a flagday at block 961631 where bip110 nodes will begin rejecting blocks that do not signal for bip110.
What I really was talking about was the idea that things would become unstable on chain and in lightning. Everything seems normal besides maybe some LN channel closings. Also, the BIP 110 "game theory" idea about a sort of miner Byzantine Generals dilemma won't happen, if at all, until next week.
The reason for closing LN channels now is that you want to do it before there is a split, not after. It's preventive. This is important because otherwise you anyway have to monitor 2 chaintips on different clients and you might as well just let it sit.
The danger is only in there being 30% or more, but less than, say 75% of hashpower on BIP-110 in the first few days. If that happens, then there is a chance for multiple long reorgs, and that is where LN nodes are vulnerable. I'm not even sure how having a watchtower for 1 channel on each of the 2 tips works.
I think that the chance is small, but it is still non-zero. Maybe 1:100 that anything happens at all... but if it happens, we're probably not prepared.
This also shows that all the BIP110ers saying that "game theory" made it so that miners would wait until the last minute to "flip the bit" were wrong.
yes, nonevent. See, market prices didn't move!
It's eventful-ish. It means there is only one chance left for peace, not war, which is the first block of every miner in the coming epoch. Or at least... a very large percentage of them. If they don't switch on the bit, then it means the only way for BIP-110 is through coercion.
Am I right that this deadline is a non event, or is this significant?