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well, yes. I'm with you re: the dumbs on Twitter.
I haven't done the exact numbers (yet?), but your intuition is correct, I think. (and, ironically, would not have been correct before they made the net-metric adjustment in July, which the Saylorbois gave me so much shit about critiquing... #1544738, #1531037)
So, before net metrics: the outstanding amount of prefs don't matter for the bitcoin-per-share calculations, so repurchasing STRC (above or below $100) is immaterial. Invisible, really, if all you're looking at is effective bitcoin per share rate.
After net metrics: now the dollar amount of the prefs owed gets netted out of assets before dividing by shares, meaning that repurchasing them at $94 is an instant 6% "improvement" in that portion of the capital stack #1544738.
Problem, of course, is that the funds they used were
a) bitcoin they own, so that reduces the "bitcoin" term of the bitcoin-per-share calculation,
b) cash raised from common stock, so diluting shareholders ~2% to raise funds and retire STRC at 6% discount is only meh accretive.
Haven't been down the rabbit hole of the metrics change, or even what it was before... my intuition abstracts to roughly:
Sell STRC at 100 to buy Bitcoin at 70k
STRC tanks 15%
Bitcoin tanks 10%
Sell Bitcoin to buy back STRC
MSTR captures 5% spread
Basically a carry-trade
Shouldn't effect the bitcoin-per-share negatively I don't think on-net since the 5% was captured in Bitcoin, and the debt is destroyed that would eventually necessitate future sales
Has anyone done the maffs on the effective BTC sales price when he buys back STRC below $100?
The dumbs on X keep talking about him selling the bottom, but since dumbs are wrong about everything that implies buying the dip in STRC adjusts the effective BTC rate.
@denlillaapan ?