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  • Risk
    Current: I believe the majority of LN users have a fraction of their BTC on LN and they arent concerned about the custodial risk

Future: with BTC price appreciation + LN adoption = bigger portion on LN network which would be a much higher risk

-UX

Current: custodial wallets have much better UX so they attract more users as its quite challenging to have great UX for a non-custodial wallet (I know of breeze working on tackling that

Future: custodial & non custodial wallets will co-exist and they wil compete for UX & security, yield .... there will be rug pulls and other shaddy stuff ... but eventually we will get there