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How are econ academics currently affected by AI? Is AI able to produce high-level econ science, threatening the livelihood of human economists? Is it similar to the field of math, or does it depend on the kind of econ one does?
I don't feel like AI is a threat to high level, experienced economists. The biggest weakness I see from AI in the realm of economic sciences is the inability to make judgment calls and to act on imperfect evidence.
AI is pretty good at coming up with ideas for looking for evidence, and pretty good at pointing out flaws in evidence, but I find that it isn't good at knowing when to stop nitpicking and when to move forward with what you have. It's also not that good at weighing between different evidences.
I do think the demand for junior level work from humans is gonna decline. Doesn't necessarily mean a contraction of the labor force. It could just be that juniors are given even more responsibility than before.
You've mentioned before thinking of taking the jump to mathematics from econ. Do you feel like AI is giving you a better or worse shot at this hypothetical?
If I ever said that, I probably didn't mean jumping to math professionally. But maybe I meant spending more time doing math as a hobby?
I am thinking of just giving up on publishing. Not a total retreat, but to stop making it the prime objective. The idea would be: produce research the way I want, keep it open source, publish it online, and eventually if it makes it to a journal---great---but if not, then whatever. I'm fortunate that I got tenure just before AI really started becoming widespread.
This kinda aligns with the observation that exact science is more at risk than human sciences.
Math and coding are the first victims because they use exact language which only allows for a very few options in terms of next probable word/token.
Physics is next in line, as experimental uncertainty blurs the language we use.
Econ, as it mixes behavorial science with math, gives more options in terms of next words, so it's not too much of a threat yet.
Does that make sense?
I'm fortunate that I got tenure just before AI really started becoming widespread.
The tenure part is really the defining factor in how we act as scientists.
Related, a Korean Professor's union recently argued to abolish the tenure-track system (https://www.hibrain.net/braincafe/cafes/48/posts/407/articles/559797 if you can read Korean). Maybe that's the solution?
I'm kinda at the interface. I got to play and publish with researchers way above my pay grade or intellectual ability, but also publish with smaller researchers who better align with my own skills. I need to play my cards right to keep the right collaborations going, so I don't end up on that receiving end.
Taking advantage of your presence in this thread. Two unrelated questions.
How are econ academics currently affected by AI? Is AI able to produce high-level econ science, threatening the livelihood of human economists? Is it similar to the field of math, or does it depend on the kind of econ one does?
You've mentioned before thinking of taking the jump to mathematics from econ. Do you feel like AI is giving you a better or worse shot at this hypothetical?