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There's so much tinfoil on this one. We discussed it on SN, here.
Canary was renewed, and no it was not signed with a different key. There's a lot of retards on the usual channels asking questions but unwilling to do the work of real research. Even when it takes 30 minutes. Better spend those 30 minutes, or 30 days, getting engagement on X over non-issues.
The absolute dumbest thing you can do is do a submarine swap from on-chain, tracked, stolen funds, especially because said service ran every utxo through chainalysis to keep their pool clean and I've seen no evidence of huge LN channels being opened, spent, discarded (and all of the large liquidity nodes wont let you empty a channel for 90% and keep it open; as that competes with their LSP income) Have you seen any? Please share receipts.
Bottom line: The team exited. If you trusted them enough to value their canary, you're a naive mf to begin with, but either way, you don't have to trust them anymore because they're gone. The new boss is Blockstream. Don't be naive, don't trust Blockstream either.
A submarine swap is the same as every other LN peer when you receive on LN. Use blinded path receives on private channels and cycle your channels, partners and node identity often. No one ever put "trust a submarine swap service to not get raided by the feds" in a spec. That's just cope for people that don't want to do the work.
What would you think of the people running said facilitator suddenly turning the operation over to an unnamed party?
I haven't been keeping up with the news, but if a well known onchain to ln facilitator let their canary slip
And let's say there was a large amount of Bitcoin that was being searched for which went missing somehow
Could the feds tell the facilitator to shutdown while they chase the sats?
And that could explain if a canary wasn't updated maybe?