The Iran War Is Now Hitting the Backup to the Backup

The U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on February 28.

Seven months later, look at what has happened to the region's oil infrastructure.

Iran has severely constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthis have expanded their position around Bab al-Mandab, the chokepoint at the other end of the Red Sea.

And now Saudi Arabia has shut down its East-West pipeline after drone attacks — the 7-million-barrel-a-day pipeline capable of moving Saudi crude from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea without using Hormuz.

Think about the sequence:

Hormuz is constrained.

The Hormuz bypass has been attacked.

And that bypass empties into a Red Sea route that is itself under pressure.

Meanwhile, Saudi crude production has fallen to its lowest level in more than 30 years, Brent settled Friday at $104.61, and the energy shock is adding to inflation and borrowing-cost pressures.

The high-signal point isn't simply that the war raised oil prices.

The conflict has spread far enough that it is now threatening the infrastructure designed to protect the world oil market from exactly this kind of disruption.

Hormuz was the primary route.

The East-West pipeline was the bypass.

The Red Sea was the alternative exit.

Now all three are under pressure.

That raises a much bigger strategic question than whether the opening strikes were militarily successful:

How much of what came next was actually planned for?