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Did anyone track these transactions on chain? It seems like they'd be large enough to be noticeable.

Yeah. I'm waiting for some evidence before I believe it.

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I suppose the Treasury Dept could be using it as an excuse, but you'd think they'd have done a least a little research before claiming "hundreds of millions of dollars in bitcoin"

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I would not think that.

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well, dammit, i let my confirmation bias get the best me on this one.

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