BKR (Baker Hughes) 4 of 9 ✅ P/E 17.4x trailing, in my band ✅ Payout 29% ✅ CEO pay is small next to $29B revenue ✅ Energy. Gas turbines and LNG gear riding the data center power buildout ❌ Yield 1.7%, need 3% or more. Some income play ❌ Debt about $18B after the Chart deal, near 33% of market cap, leverage 2.5x ❌ Cash $4.1B does not cover the debt ❌ Free cash flow covers expenses only about 1.2x, need 2x ❌ Growth near 11% plus the yield lands about 13% a year, under my 15% Bitcoin bear hurdle
Lyn's Lens: profitable, net margin near 10%. Her entry math says about $60 to $69 and the stock sits at $54.51, so the price works for her. P/FCF payback is about 16 years. The balance sheet and the Bitcoin hurdle kill it, not the price.
CEG (Constellation Energy) 4 of 9 ✅ P/E 25.7x trailing, about 22x forward, in my band ✅ Payout 16% ✅ CEO pay passes next to $31B revenue ✅ Nuclear power, the biggest carbon free fleet in the country ❌ Yield 0.65%, need 3% or more ❌ Net debt $24B after the Calpine deal, near 26% of market cap ❌ Cash $0.7B does not come close to covering the debt ❌ Reported free cash flow is near zero during the Calpine buildout. About 22 years of payback even on guided cash flow before growth spending ❌ Growth near 12% plus a 0.65% yield lands about 13% a year, under the hurdle
Lyn's Lens: profitable, net margin near 11%. Her entry math lands about $230 to $260 and the stock is $264, right at the top of her range after falling from a $401 high.
Both are a pass for me. The marketing sells income and a big score. The math says two good businesses carrying acquisition debt, paying almost nothing, and growing too slow to beat Bitcoin.
I really like this insight. I searched for Lyn's Lens and found the service. How long have you had it, assume you are happy with the results? Looks pretty good.
BKR (Baker Hughes) 4 of 9
✅ P/E 17.4x trailing, in my band
✅ Payout 29%
✅ CEO pay is small next to $29B revenue
✅ Energy. Gas turbines and LNG gear riding the data center power buildout
❌ Yield 1.7%, need 3% or more. Some income play
❌ Debt about $18B after the Chart deal, near 33% of market cap, leverage 2.5x
❌ Cash $4.1B does not cover the debt
❌ Free cash flow covers expenses only about 1.2x, need 2x
❌ Growth near 11% plus the yield lands about 13% a year, under my 15% Bitcoin bear hurdle
Lyn's Lens: profitable, net margin near 10%. Her entry math says about $60 to $69 and the stock sits at $54.51, so the price works for her. P/FCF payback is about 16 years. The balance sheet and the Bitcoin hurdle kill it, not the price.
CEG (Constellation Energy) 4 of 9
✅ P/E 25.7x trailing, about 22x forward, in my band
✅ Payout 16%
✅ CEO pay passes next to $31B revenue
✅ Nuclear power, the biggest carbon free fleet in the country
❌ Yield 0.65%, need 3% or more
❌ Net debt $24B after the Calpine deal, near 26% of market cap
❌ Cash $0.7B does not come close to covering the debt
❌ Reported free cash flow is near zero during the Calpine buildout. About 22 years of payback even on guided cash flow before growth spending
❌ Growth near 12% plus a 0.65% yield lands about 13% a year, under the hurdle
Lyn's Lens: profitable, net margin near 11%. Her entry math lands about $230 to $260 and the stock is $264, right at the top of her range after falling from a $401 high.
Both are a pass for me. The marketing sells income and a big score. The math says two good businesses carrying acquisition debt, paying almost nothing, and growing too slow to beat Bitcoin.