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Fast forward to today, when in a follow up to its report from last week, the FT writes that according to Christophe Salmon, Trafigura’s chief financial officer, the crisis in global energy markets will force some smaller commodity traders out of business and unleash a wave of consolidation in the sector.
The global commodity trading sector is dominated by large groups such as Trafigura, Vitol and Gunvor but Salmon said many smaller traders were facing a multitude of problems from rising capital requirements to a lack of access to credit.
So just to make sure that the message is heard loud and clear, Salmon said that if the commodity traders go down, they will drag the rest of the world with them, and that "ruptures to commodity financing would feed through to consumers."
“We are already in a vicious cycle on the futures market. I want to stress the impact that it will have on the physical market," he said.
"We are more and more engaged with governments in order to inform the governments of the likelihood of market disruptions, meaning stock-outs of certain products in certain regions."
Translation: watch for 1970s style lines at your local gas station, something that is probably taking place in Europe as we type: European gas prices jumped to more than €300 per megawatt hour this month before easing below €100, while Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has risen 20 per cent since the invasion of Ukraine to $118 per barrel.
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Just replace nickel with lentils when making stainless steel
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