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413 sats \ 9 replies \ @nerd2ninja 18 Apr 2023 \ parent \ on: Bitcoin Loan VS Bitcoin-backed Loans: Pros & Cons bitcoin
Full (unverifiable) reserve of Bitcoin, but not of dollars.
Leverage increases the prices of things until you pay off that leverage which brings the price back down. On a macro level, that means a depression unless you violate the social trust that made that work as money in the first place and increase the supply of money (which arguably the debt did in the first place) to bail out the lenders.
I'm simplifying a lot because I've gone over this again and again, but that's the gist.
Maybe the CeFi lenders are unverifiable (hopefully more adopt Proof of Reserve and Proof of Liability) but those are not the only options. Here's a smart contract where you can see the full reserve, run a full node and verify yourself: https://explorer.rsk.co/address/0xf294ea272d6f8fedc08acf8e93ff50fe99e1f7e8
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You have addressed half of sentence 1 (failed to address fractional reserve of dollars) and did nothing about paragraph 2
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There's nothing really substantial to reply to. It's a narrative that is divorced from the actual mechanics of a BTC-backed loan.
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"Systems theory is the interdisciplinary study of systems, i.e. cohesive groups of interrelated, interdependent components that can be natural or human-made. Every system has causal boundaries, is influenced by its context, defined by its structure, function and role, and expressed through its relations with other systems. A system is 'more than the sum of its parts' by expressing synergy or emergent behavior."
As such the system which acts as a heating element is not divorced from the system of a water boiler, it is part of the system.
The economic impacts of debt is not divorced from the mechanics of a Bitcoin backed loan. They work and operate in the same system.
You're being intellectually dishonest.
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I am not being intellectually dishonest. Your narrative is divorced from reality.
Leverage increases the prices of things until you pay off that leverage which brings the price back down.
Price is a function of supply and demand. Debt may increase demand for a particular good (giving people the ability to afford it who previously could not) but supply can react to keep prices down. There's no inherent reason to believe credit causes an imbalance that necessitates a dramatic price increase leading to recession after credit dries up. That said, suppliers don't have to blindly follow demand either, they can inquire about where demand is coming from, sense a debt bubble, and plan accordingly.
Credit is a perfectly normal part of the economy that supply chains can adjust to according to shifting consumer demands. Yes there is some "degen" speculative activity but it can be isolated, constrained by hard limits imposed by minimum collateral ratios, with failures managed through orderly liquidation and bankruptcy processes.
Where credit becomes really systemically problematic is when its price is artificially manipulated (for example due to govt subsidies or interest rate intervention), which sends all kinds of wrong signals to the market and leads to distortions such as malinvestment and oversupply or undersupply of goods and services.
On a macro level, that means a depression unless you violate the social trust that made that work as money in the first place and increase the supply of money (which arguably the debt did in the first place) to bail out the lenders.
If the loans are over-collateralized then there's no need to bail out lenders. If borrowers aren't maintaining sufficient margin, the collateral gets liquidated before it goes underwater, and lenders get their money back.
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"How the economic machine works" by Ray Dalio explains how credit increases prices
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0&t=1s
A read of Ludwig Von Mises "Human Action" or "Money and Credit" could do you good.
Maybe this might be a quicker read to do you good: https://mises.org/library/securitization-and-fractional-reserve-banking
Generally speaking though, if an exchange of Bitcoin for dollars is an economic agreement from the start, then that should happen, but the lender of a Bitcoin backed loan does not want or hope to obtain Bitcoin and would actually be disappointed if the loan liquidated causing the lender to sell it off for what they actually want (fiat).
This is essentially the same problem that the asset backed security known as a mortgage ran into in 2008. Sure if people don't pay their mortgage, the bank gets the house, but the bank doesn't want the house, they want dollars and so have to sell it on the open market for dollars driving down the price of housing.
At the same time, before the bust, people securitizing the asset are not selling it, causing the asset to maintain or even increase in value against what's being lent against.
Now you might say "But the overcollateralization though!" but all that does increase the fuse the bomb, not diffuse the bomb.
I'll warn you now, that I am staunchly against credit creation in spite of its normalization in the modern economy. My reasoning for running to Bitcoin is to escape the fucked up system of usury.