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I am going to offer a brief little conspiracy theory about what is behind the current fee rate inflation.
If a miner had a large stock of bitcoin and a lot of debt chasing them they might temporarily be able to squeeze a profit out of gaming the fee market.
They might think the fuss about ordinals will smokescreen them, or that malign institutionals are burning bitcoin to get a new low entry point. There's many reasons that it could be.
Let's say that a miner with 20% of the hashpower has a buttload of reserve BTC enough to buffer against the inevitable end trajectory of fee rates. They start making transactions that look plausibly like other common large transactions, but pay very high fees.
Fees were only about $3,000 worth per block a few months ago, now they are upwards of $60,000. That is a 20x. If they lose 20% making the tx, but mine 1/5th of these now 20x sized block fees... Right at this moment that amounts to a 400% profit.
In other words, until fees get to around 800sat/vByte someone can keep doing this and effectively doubling their mining income, which would be pretty handy if you were teetering on foreclosure.
Is this feasible? Can few miners actually affect the network this drastically? This is largest decentralized system ever, and it can be gamed this easily?
I'm having trouble believing this narratuve honestly. Maybe I just don't understand...
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I'm not sure about the math here, but intuitively I see the incentive for miners to shill Ordinals for a similar reason.
Now my brain has ended this conclusion with if they fuck over Bitcoin transactions then they are going to end up in the $fiat domain broke and there will be home and independent miners patiently waiting to accept the difficulty adjustment and heat their homes.
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